In its December 2015 policy statement, the one that raised the federal funds target corridor, the FOMC changed the language surrounding its inflation stance. They still projected the 2%, of course, but were now indicating that they were more certain than ever about it. In many ways they had to shift the wording because of the actions; the prior passage [...]
US oil prices (WTI) ended 2014 at $53.45 spot. Since the decline to that point was thought be a temporary deviation, the fact that WTI ended 2015 at $37.07 is inconceivable to that perspective. The reasons for that were the unemployment rate and GDP. Payroll expansion had just fired up into the “best jobs market in decades” while GDP was [...]
There no longer is any doubt about the state of industry and manufacturing in the US as well as the rest of the world. The most diehard, stubbornly optimistic economists have now completely given up on the “goods economy.” Instead, they have been forced to try to explain why such a slump would show up exactly when it shouldn’t, and [...]
In the manufacturing sector we find the most supreme test of economic credentials. Despite what is clearly taking place, the mainstream, orthodox outlook and assessment continues to dominate. There isn’t any doubt anymore about the manufacturing sector, as recession not only is broad enough there on its own it continues to deepen and darken. Yet, because Janet Yellen declared the [...]
Japan has a history of revising its economic figures all over the place. The QQE era seems to have made GDP accounting something of an art form rather than the quantitatively determined “science” of how it is presented. For example, last December the Japan Times ran a story on December 2, 2014, under the headline Japan’s Recession May Be Shallower [...]
Durable goods estimates were somewhat better in November than they have been in recent months. Year-over-year, orders contracted by less than 1% in the latest month after contracting more than 2.7% in each of the prior six. In September, durable goods orders (ex transportation) were down almost 5.5%. While that counts as improvement it may not count as meaningful. The [...]
I haven’t reported much on the housing market this year because frankly it has been vastly surpassed by everything taking place (globally) with the “dollar” and the economy that seems stapled to it. However, November’s resale figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have alarmed several lines of commentary normally more assured (friendly to the orthodox recovery). The rate [...]
Over the weekend, Charles Schwab issued a “tool” for investment advisors to help them “feel good” about what is expected for 2016. With investors increasingly talking about risk, and stock market risk at that, there is a counter-rush to reassure. Some of that is expected in places like this, but increasingly the disparity between the form of that encouragement and [...]
The FOMC at least still knows how to throw a party. It may not be what it once was, but for one day there was the familiar euphoria predicated upon the wish that central bankers might know something about anything. All-too-quickly, however, it vanished as it becomes increasingly clear, despite all attempts to rewrite this history, that there are no [...]
For an economy that is supposed to be on the verge of overheating, or at least moving decisively in that direction, there are an inordinate number of indications of a cyclical stall and termination rather than some beginning (or ripening). I’m not referring exclusively to economic indications, either, such as the Federal Reserve’s own industrial production figure that just showed [...]
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