Monetarism, at its core, is relatively quite simple. It would have to be, standing upon ground of nothing much more than generic concepts for almost every important economic factor. But all of it can be distilled into the idea of money supply; given “enough”, the economy will thrive. That view includes some of the worst of conditions so long as [...]
I don't often write about global geopolitics because I think, in general, investors spend too much time worrying about things they can't control or aren't going to happen or wouldn't matter much if they did. The best example is the Middle East which has been a mess my entire life and long before it for that matter. Changing your investments [...]
The problem with Brazil is that its central bank has done everything the monetary textbook requires of it. Setting aside that Banco itself is a literal mishmash of public and private interests (what central bank isn’t?), the freefall in the Brazilian economy of late is simply puzzling to the mainstream. Unlike the US or Europe, at least the descent is [...]
The Fed has many problems with its attempt to convince the world that it has itself fulfilled its recovery mission. That self-reflected “mandate” is meant to include a masterful revisit to prior American infatuation with debt and credit. There was no more visible and visceral demonstration of those terms than the middle 2000’s, and it is the intent of monetary [...]
US industrial production contracted again in October, having declined now in seven out of 2015’s ten months. Year-over-year, US IP increased by the smallest amount since 2009, barely positive at just +0.34%. The last time IP was so slow was January 2010; on the way down into the Great Recession, it was equivalent to March 2008. Capacity utilization declined again [...]
When addressing the inability of monetary policy to actually produce its “inflation” target, the FOMC has been left to hiding. They fully and openly admit the role of oil prices in the depression of calculated inflation starting late 2014 because they reason that it somehow doesn’t apply strictly within their mandate (as if it was specifically written for monetary policy [...]
With financial markets sharply glued to the “dollar’s” renewed mischief, that means everything lies at the feet of the global economy. The US economy is supposed to be the one colorful and lively example in that otherwise souring picture, even if it has been temporarily pushed from ideal. In fact, despite all that has happened this year, and “unexpectedly” continues [...]
Janet Yellen and orthodox economists claim that the economy can only be gaining, and that word is taken, on faith, as if some updated, modern gold standard for meaning. No matter the contrary in actual evidence and observation, the “word” remains as if diktat were the only employ. It has produced some very strange dichotomies, particularly of late, where those [...]
There is no accounting for revisions because by the time anyone remembers it was too late. The same is true for monthly variations that can easily become swallowed by overarching trends unconcerned with such small time periods. All of that means we shall repeat, over and over, the same incessant dichotomy whereby everything looks bad and even recessionary but the [...]
Economists continue to claim that manufacturing just doesn’t matter and that the service economy is more than fine. Setting aside the obvious link between services and goods to begin with (since so many services are dedicated to managing, moving and especially selling goods), it just doesn’t add up; if consumers are freely spending on services then why would they so [...]
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