recession

Wholesale Lingering

By |2015-09-10T13:20:11-04:00September 10th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After nearly coming in flat for June, wholesale sales fell almost 5% year-over-year in July. That is the second worst month of this “cycle”, bested only by May’s nearly 7% drop. The six-month average is now -3.2% which is uncomfortably close to the worst part of the dot-com recession which only averaged -4.0% at the low. Despite that sales environment, [...]

Inside of QE Is Apparently No Better

By |2015-09-09T18:36:12-04:00September 9th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In February 2010, Bank of England chief Mervyn King was very worried about the fragile nature of the British recovery as it fit within the more nebulous global hoard. There were emerging threats from an “unexpected” setback over a tiny little country on the Aegean, perhaps depressing Europe so soon out of the depths of the global Great Recession. Mervyn [...]

Cultish Fervor

By |2015-09-09T18:05:06-04:00September 9th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

When the Bank of Japan announced on October 31, 2014, that it would increase the scale of QQE to ¥80 trillion annually, it noted the usual surfeit words that have clearly been passed around to everyone within network connectivity of the central axis of orthodox economics. You can honestly close your eyes and have someone read aloud the text and [...]

Gallup Suggests More Like Sagging Hires

By |2015-09-09T15:23:33-04:00September 9th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If on the fence trying to decide whether surging job openings or tailing hiring is the true representation of the economy (recognizing that these are not mutually exclusive propositions, just that it isn’t very likely they both coexist in anything but subjectively statistical fancy) Gallup just offered far more of the latter. Should actual job openings hold some kind of [...]

The Spread of Globalizing Mess

By |2015-09-08T15:44:18-04:00September 8th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a world saturated by derivatives, the concept of a bellwether of a bellwether might actually make sense. If China is one for the global economy then perhaps South Korea might be it for China. Unlike Japan, South Korea hasn’t had the yawning chasm of QQE to alter its balances, therefore the level of shipments particularly to China offer perhaps [...]

Distinct Lack Of Enthusiasm For The Corporate Bubble

By |2015-09-04T14:57:18-04:00September 4th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold is down again today but the yen up past 119 toward 118.5; and the real crashing under 3.8 now. In other words, as yesterday, the “dollar” market is somewhat mixed. That view, however, is somewhat deceptive as the absence of further “dollar” pressure does not equate to renewed optimism and a serious move back near funding normalcy. A stroll [...]

Only Two Points Left Meaningful in Payrolls; Both Look Downward

By |2015-09-04T13:10:26-04:00September 4th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are only two numbers in the monthly payroll report that have any meaning, and both came up quite short yet again. The first, as always, is the labor force itself as that population estimate more than any other indicates the relative station of the US economy. There has never been any time in recorded economic history where economic growth [...]

Brazil Counts For, And Explains, A Lot

By |2015-09-03T14:02:14-04:00September 3rd, 2015|Markets|

Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. The economy there isn’t going [...]

QE One More Time; All Risk, No Reward

By |2015-09-02T17:23:26-04:00September 2nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The re-crash of oil prices during the recent “dollar” wave/run were hard on almost everyone involved, economically and otherwise, but perhaps not more so than the ECB and its QE proponents. Despite being attributed with every minor upward move that could plausibly be assigned, for all the hype there has been very little actual movement anywhere of significance. The virtuous [...]

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