These may be desperate times indeed, where every small piece of anything not wholly dismal is singled out as the indicator that either the worst has passed or it never was. I am simply at a loss to describe housing construction figures in such unequivocally glowing terms. For the most part, construction activity hasn’t deviated at all from its trend [...]
Some people are getting very nervous about China, and as usual that stems from a misreading of the Chinese intentions. This is not to say that one should not be concerned at all, but it is much better to be concerned for the right reasons in order to find a more suitable line of inquiry and analysis. The complications of [...]
The Edmund Fitzgerald departed the Burlington Northern Railroad dock in Superior, Wisconsin on November 9, 1975, at about 2:20 in the afternoon. She was carrying a load of taconite pellets to Zug Island in the Detroit River, a rather routine run for this massive ore hauler on the Great Lakes. Only a few minutes after departing, the National Weather Service [...]
Since hitting it most recent low in mid-March, spot WTI has rebounded about 40% reaching above $61/barrel at one point. The ultimate low, which brought the physical price down under $43, was on the morning of March 18. The FOMC statement later that afternoon has been taken as a removal of any close threat to ZIRP, taking enormous pressure off the [...]
It’s very decorative, it’s very large, it looks very expensive, it’s very splashy. I’d identify the new owner as being very rich, and it’ll brighten up his expensive apartment. Would you want any more reasons? John Richardson, Picasso biographer on why Les Femmes d'Alger (Version O) is worth the $179 million it fetched at a Christie's auction recently, a [...]
Continuing on with the inventory theme, industrial production (which does include activities outside the manufacturing sector) continues to falter suggesting that piling inventories are at least beginning their recessionary effects. By every measure, IP is decelerating and doing so at a rate usually observed of the initial stages of dislocation. In the adjusted series, IP has declined for five consecutive [...]
The fact that these deficient economic estimates continue in April instead of the forecasted and pleaded rebound has raised more serious concerns even among those most loyal to the mainline tendencies. It is getting more difficult to deny that there is a major economic problem brewing, one which may already be rather severe despite the fact that the heaviest pressures [...]
If March was supposed to herald at least the beginning of the anticipated yearly rebound, April put that idea to rest. In terms of retail sales, one of the most important and largest segments of “demand”, April’s figures were mostly the worst of the recovery and some of the worst in the entire series – “beating” out February in every [...]
With the “dollar” off the ledger as far as a menacing factor, perceptions have begun to shift toward different if still-confused rhetoric. Figuring out fixed income isn’t always straightforward to begin with, but as the “unexpected” flirtation with deflation over the past few months threw a huge wrench into the economic boom supposedly forming the world over, the temptation now [...]
I think at this point with China, everything from here on out until whatever final resolution to the bubble era will be “unexpected.” That qualification has been overused almost everywhere during this global “recovery” that never was, the latest being China’s exports sinking in April as well as March. Analysts and economists were thinking about a tepid plus sign, expectations [...]
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