In what can only be an intentional trial balloon, the Abe government in Japan is making noise about delaying the next scheduled tax increase. Considered to be one of the important “arrows” in Abenomics, this is an especially stark admission that orthodox economics has not (yet again) delivered on its promise. When QQE was started in April 2013, there were [...]
The re-emergence of “tight” dollar “supply” has created much the same problems as had been seen prior to October. That means the usual places exhibit duress to varying degrees. What I don’t think is really appreciated is how this year’s episode is transformative toward a different set “ruling” the global dollar short. In one sense, it is not surprising to [...]
All the parameters we have come to expect from the payroll report were exhibited for October, including “good” numbers all around. Even the Household Survey jumped in October while the Labor Force grew slightly, so for one month volatility in the data was at least favorable. None of that, of course, erases the problems that have been equally durable and [...]
Given the attention to oil prices lately, it sure seems as if the media is determined to make a case for supply causation rather than anything of demand that might harm the established recovery narrative. In almost every major financial outlet, and more than a few “mainstream” “news” centers, there is a uniform tale of how lower oil prices are [...]
The central bank monolith is revealed to fracturing. The most evident appearance of that was the Bank of Japan’s recent surprise, where the vote to increase QQE was 5-4. But it has been more than Japan where divergences in policymaker positions are apparent. That includes, of course, the ECB, though not due to the Germany/not-Germany divide that has been a [...]
Despite all domestic reports to the contrary, the rest of the world is having a very difficult time seeing any recovery yet in the United States economy. With recent trade data in hand, it is not difficult to discern why oil prices are heading so much lower and the Chinese (and then Brazil and every other resource economy) are left [...]
Most of what accounts for GDP is nothing but noise, leaving only a few major indications about what the economy is doing (or not doing). Prior to 2008, that wasn’t much of a problem as GDP by and large seemed to correlate well with other estimations of economic progress, and even our own intuitive perceptions. If you go back historically, [...]
The unfortunately established narrative for all economic accounts in 2014 relates (still) to depressing winter earlier in the year and “better” from there. At first glance, the latest figures on durable goods seem to be following that idea, though a “rough patch” has perhaps developed over the past two months. A wider context, however, is really needed as the pattern [...]
The problem with European monetarism is not that it is trying to swim against the tide of fragmented “markets” and national boundaries that represent very real hurdles in terms of legal and systemic bottlenecks. For the most part, everything that the ECB has tried, including a great deal that predates the bright spotlight on Mario Draghi, has led to precisely [...]
With all of the credit market fireworks that leaked into stocks, the pace of economic reassurance from “authorities” has been rather steady and a bit more emphatic. Despite the attempts at managing perceptions, there has been very little actual success in persuading. In many ways this is like the unfolding ebola drama in that there is a palpable disconnect between [...]
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