Unemployment in Brazil typically rises at the start of each year, a ritual accepted in that part of South America in a way that it isn’t here (residual seasonality). In 2013, for example, from December 2012 through March the rate rose by 1.1 percentage points. The following year, from December through March, it increased by 1 percentage point. This year, [...]
If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it. In an interview with Charles Schwab, the former Fed Chairman says not [...]
Economics is a pretty simple framework of understanding, at least in the small “e” sense. The big problem with Economics, capital “E”, is that the study is dedicated to other things beyond the economy. In the 21st century, it has become almost exclusive to those extraneous errands. It has morphed into a discipline dedicated to statistical regression of what relates [...]
As I wondered yesterday, what good would opening up the Federal Reserve do for us? What you would find is already out on the table. We would be treated to hidden insight that already exists in public, such as that delivered by FRBSF President (and CEO) John Williams just today (thanks to T. Tateo for pointing it out). He pronounced [...]
Janet Yellen was sworn in as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on February 3, 2014. One of her first acts as Chairman was to participate in the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference held in March that year in Chicago. She addressed her audience in a speech specifically directed at the labor market. As was usual in 2014, [...]
In August 2014, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer admitted to an audience in Sweden the possibility in some unusually candid terms that maybe they (economists, not Sweden) didn’t know what they were doing. His speech was lost in the times, those being the middle of that year where the Fed having already started to taper QE3 and 4 were [...]
To my mind, “reflation” has always proceeded under false pretenses. This goes for more than just the latest version, as we witnessed the same incongruity in each of the prior three. The trend is grounded in mere hope more than rational analysis, largely because I think human nature demands it. We are conditioned to believe especially in the 21st century [...]
Right now there are two conventional propositions behind the “reflation” trade, and in many ways both are highly related if not fully intertwined. The first is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. The Fed is raising rates again and seems more confident in doing more this year than it wanted to last year. With nominal rates already [...]
Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is [...]
There were no surprises in the updated JOLTS estimates for December 2016, just more of the same sideways. The level of Job Openings was 5.501 million (SA), practically unchanged from November’s 5.505 million. The BLS estimates that Job Openings have been stuck at around that level since April 2015. In terms of Hires, that series, too, was practically unchanged in [...]
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