Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics in China released what seemed like import levels that suggested “stimulus” was finally paying off and the economy had struck bottom. Among these more glowing results was an absolute surge in the importation of oil, which was blindly parroted as if Chinese demand due to the expected economic revival were the cause. Instead, [...]
The People’s Bank of China today fixed the CNY exchange (reference) rate below 6.56 for the first time since early February. That means all the tremendous effort that went into erasing December and January’s “dollar” pressure (not devaluation) has been unwound, as the currency now trades just about where it was at the start of China’s Lunar New Year Golden [...]
With stocks falling today continuing somewhat yesterday’s post-FOMC selloff there was going to be universal citation of monetary policy; or at least these new expectations of monetary policy coming supposedly for June. The dominant narrative remains in favor of Fed power where stocks don’t do well without it. So as the central bank removes so very slowly its “accommodation” we [...]
It’s not just that there was an obvious and intense change in sentiment, as that is quite common among and within markets. It is more so that this repetition is a little too familiar. In January, the mainstream was taken aback as the world looked headed for a very dark place, all “unexpected” of course. Just a few months later, [...]
Inflation is a complicated subject that has been devalued as if it were simply some variable in an equation. It starts with the very premise itself, as if an index of a bucket of consumer prices equals a comprehensive review of the subject. As Irving Fisher realized more than a century ago, money can go into places beyond any CPI’s [...]
On April 12, Muhammadu Buhari, President of Nigeria, was in Beijing to negotiate Chinese aid for his ailing country. At home, the government faces an enormous budget deficit largely on the price of oil. The more immediate threat, however, is that Nigeria in large part due to oil prices is being squeezed by monetary shortage. The country is an import-heavy [...]
The focus on China and the Chinese economy is not just related to its size but more so the fact that it is the pivot point for the whole global system. In pure economic terms, as “end demand” from the developed world economies slows, the Chinese economy either absorbs that reduction (through its own internal “stimulus”) or passes it on [...]
By April last year, it had become clear that conditions in China were heading into dangerous territory. Even though most mainstream attention was fixed on the then-still growing stock bubble, there was so much that was wrong almost everywhere else. The economy would not stop slowing, and indeed still has not. The financial system was worse, so much so that [...]
Oil prices remain ebullient, relatively, compared to the dismal start to the year. Everything else, it seems, is driven by that background which means “dollar.” In that respect, we look to China or at least the Asian version of the “dollar” for guidance on triangulating funding conditions and future potential positioning. The CNY exchange is still within the post-Golden Week [...]
The PBOC’s balance sheet was relatively quiet in February, with no large moves on either side of its ledger. In fact, these minor shifts appeared to be more so adjustments than the more extreme efforts the central bank had become used to undertaking. The heavy lifting was accomplished in January at least as far was what is visible, leaving February’s [...]
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