Because industrial production for the Eurozone was estimated to have risen 2.4% in January, first quarter GDP was boosted to 0.6% (quarterly rate) as statisticians were expecting that European industry would at least hold up the rest of the quarter. While not figuring the same blistering pace, the GDP figure suggested at least the European economy holding on to that [...]
I have referred to the June 2003 FOMC meeting many times before and I suspect that I will continue to do so long into the future. It was one of those events that should be marked in history, truly relevant to the future developments that became panic and now sustained economic decay. It’s as if the committee members at that [...]
There was more bad news for the FOMC over the past few days beside the once again near-zero GDP estimate. If the labor market were truly growing as is claimed, we should be finding “inflation” in a broad set of different economic views. From the standard inflation calculations to various estimates for wages or income, by now it should be [...]
There was a time not all that long ago that it was great, maybe even thrilling, to be a central banker. The late 1990’s had to have been the absolute apex, but the aftermath of the Panic of 2008 resurrected some of that lost luster. Undoubtedly that was due to great confusion over what had actually occurred, and thus lost [...]
Calculated “inflation” in Europe disappointed again in March, as for the second month in a row the HICP rate was below zero. There had been some hope after the German version turned just slightly positive that it would herald a different sign for the rest of Europe. Instead, inflation rates in other places were mostly the same; Spain stuck at [...]
Household spending in February 2016 in Japan rose year-over-year for the first time in six months. That was the sum total of any good economic news for the monetary-stricken economy, and it doesn’t really survive closer inspection. The rise in spending was due largely to “other” activities you don’t associate with strong economic rebounds. The overall figure was just +1.6% [...]
There was a robust debate inside economics earlier in the recovery period over Okun’s “Law”, the seemingly stable relationship between the unemployment rate and real GDP. The Great Recession was stunningly large in terms of the skyrocketing unemployment rate given that initial estimates for real GDP were bad but not as catastrophic. This was more than a theoretical problem for [...]
If there is any doubt as to the confusion inside the FOMC, one needs only to examine its models. The latest updated projections make a full mockery of both monetary policy and the theory that guides it. Ferbus and the rest don’t buy the labor market story, either, which is why the Fed can only be hesitant at best about [...]
Maybe after a couple generations the Japanese have finally had enough. Perhaps QQE was large enough so as to leave no doubt that not only did it fail, but that it was the same result registered time and again before. The Bank of Japan has promulgated eleven QE’s dating back to 2001, but this last one might have done so [...]
The orthodox intention behind NIRP is that by taxing idle “money” it will make banks put it to use. Setting aside relevant objections about what bank “reserves” actually are, negative nominal rates used in this fashion just don’t work that way. This is not an arguable point; it has been proven across 618 days or just shy of 21 months. [...]
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