I feel almost obligated at this point to present UST volatility whenever referring to funding markets. Hopefully that “duty” will subside in the near term, but as I suggested yesterday this week is setting up to be much like last week. When I wrote that, however, I didn’t mean to propose a literal copy from week to week, but that [...]
Given the dramatic inflection in “dollar” behavior surrounding the March 18 FOMC meeting there wasn’t much surprising in the latest TIC figures for that month. If anything was complicated it was due solely to the fact that this change occurred mid-month. For the most part, the heavy “tightening” trend that began anew after January was reset by the end of [...]
Another day, another day of volatility in UST trading with the 10s trading up 9 bps in yield from Friday’s close. It is, so far, an almost exact carbon copy of the start to last week, including the 13:30 selloff. Repetition is indicative of systemic factor(s) rather than some kind of random variation (or a minor factor indistinguishable from a [...]
Repo rates ticked up again today as both agency and MBS GC rates remain over 20 bps. Volume has picked up also more recently, which may suggest more benign conditions overall the past almost two months are running their full course. Ever since May 1, volume in all three classes has been significantly greater than their drawn out averages, with [...]
It was another pretty volatile session for UST trading, including the 13:30 selloff showing up right on schedule. The open was bid rather heavily, likely due to the nasty retail sales figures that increase the probability of something more than a temporary economic slump, but selling appeared almost from the open. There was heavy buying again around 13:00 and the [...]
In the space of a little more than 2 trading days, the US 10-year treasury went from just a tic or two above 2.10% in yield to a few tics above 2.30% in yield. The front end of that comparison was itself remarkable, as the open for trading Friday (payroll lunacy entailing) was down almost 9 bps in yield from [...]
With the “dollar” off the ledger as far as a menacing factor, perceptions have begun to shift toward different if still-confused rhetoric. Figuring out fixed income isn’t always straightforward to begin with, but as the “unexpected” flirtation with deflation over the past few months threw a huge wrench into the economic boom supposedly forming the world over, the temptation now [...]
With Germany’s bond market spooking fixed income all over the world, every rate system has fallen under increasing suspicion. US rates seemed to have bowed to the same ghosts, as the benchmark 10-year treasury rose in yield to an intraday high of around 2.30% last week. That was a sharp increase in only a few days, a trading week, that [...]
As the “dollar” has taken back some of its pressure we are seeing at least some of the effects of that in various credit and funding markets. There can be no doubt now that the March 18, 2015, FOMC decision to at least position more “dovish” removed a great deal of “dollar” stress from the global network. To that end, [...]
The FOMC statement changes seem to have initiated knee-jerk reactions undoing the interpretations of the March statement. In other words, the first blush of FOMC obfuscation appears to be trending back toward “hawkishness” in clear defiance of last month’s clear “dovishness.” The basis for that seems to be the references to what the Fed is still proclaiming “transitory” factors, to [...]
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