Our strategic research partner is calling for the end of Phase 4 and the beginning of Phase 5. Phase 4 is called the "Countertrend Pullback." Phase 5 is called a "High Conviction Rally." Is the equity Bull about to be re-awakened? As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Find out about your personal risk [...]
The effects of a strong US currency are vast. Much of what is being reported in main stream media are the negative domestic effects. A wider view shows some positive evolving trends as well. Yes, a higher US dollar has killed oil prices. This has lead to lower broad Index earnings and earnings expectations which is highly concentrated in the energy [...]
Since November of 2014, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been traded within a range of 150 or so points. During that time, it has broken the 50-day moving average a total of 7 times, but has yet to break support at the 200. If it's able to break the short-term downtrend line at the 2100 level, we're looking at new [...]
Our strategic macro economic research partner has a max underweight recommendation for bonds. Why the hate? For starters, real yields are 0%. While certainly better than the first quarter of 2013, is 0% the best we can hope to earn from our savings and investment dollars? Given current levels of GDP and current earnings yields for equities, bonds are at some of [...]
The S&P 500 Index ((IVV)) zig-zagged with no certain direction for the first part of the year, gaining just under 1% during this somewhat volatile period. The index sits right above support below the 50-day moving average. Getting above and holding that level will be key to the direction of the market in the coming weeks. The S&P 500 Value Index ((IVE)), [...]
After stagnating in January, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) continued its surge to new all-time highs February. March isn't looking so rosy though. If it can’t blast through the 50-day moving average and above the 2120 level, look for the index to test the 200-day moving average at the 2010 level. The S&P 500 is up 0.60% for the year. The [...]
Are we going to get a repeat of 1937-38? Are rate hikes going to put us into recession? Analysts Earnings revisions have been extreme. Are we going into recession? Where does one invest? 1937-38 Comparisons When one compares 2008-2009 to the great depression, there is a natural progression in the narrative to look for the "double-dip" that was 1937-38. Caution, [...]
The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy, but also includes Agriculture, Industrial Metals, Livestock, and Precious Metals as part of its holdings. The index broke down during the month of July on the backs of a stronger US Dollar and Saudia Arabia’s strategic decision to hold production levels. It now finds itself just under the 50-day moving average [...]
Dollar strength may be over extended. Dollar action after the Fed announcement last week seemed to indicate that investors (speculators) were ready and willing to sell the greenback. Looking at the chart, one can see a potential peak in the Dollar Index earlier this month. And, our macro economic partner's indicators are a short term extended level for the dollar. The effects [...]
Since November of 2014, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been traded within a range of 150 or so points. During that time, it has broken the 50-day moving average a total of 5 times, but has yet to break support at the 200. And this coming week might see us test that 200-day moving average again if we can’t clear [...]
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