The only thing that changed was the CPI. What distinguishes 2021-22 from the prior post-crisis period 2007-20 is merely the performance of whatever consumer price index. This latter has been called inflation, yet the data conclusively support the market verdict pricing how it never was.What data? The "everything" data, the most comprehensive financial and monetary compendium yet available: The Financial [...]
Over the weekend, Bitcoin tumbled again. Reaching an ultra-ugly low of $17,641 (before retracing back above $20k), even the self-styled premier digital “store of value” has thrown in the towel. As I wrote last week, winter isn’t coming it is here.One crucial reason why, the Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported last week how imports into that country during the tumultuous [...]
At his last press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made a bunch of unsubstantiated claims, none of which were called out or even questioned by the assembled reporters. These rituals are designed to project authority not conduct inquiry, and this one was perhaps the best representation of that intent.Powell’s job is to put the current predicament in the best [...]
If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5 concurrently rippling through the global reserve system. This much was apparent right from the start, with financial markets gone haywire three months ago (mid-March seasonal bottleneck), [...]
Wow, what an incredible day across the entire marketplace. And by incredible I mean nothing good at all. Predictable, though. All the warning signs and warned-about fragilities playing out as expected, escalation up and down each curve or equity index. To start with, I still don’t really know where the bills are right now! That it is even a question [...]
Neither Jay Powell nor Janet Yellen see recession risk. They’re coverage, though, ends at the US boundary, each thoroughly trained on the wrong idea the US economy is an island. While it isn’t and it has its own very visible recession problems right now, properly speaking globally there’s no bigger recession risk-ignition than over on the other side of the [...]
Today was a wonder to behold, Jay Powell performing at his absolutely most Volcker-esque. The biggest single-meeting rate hike since ’94, a triple-dipper 75 bps, all because the Fed thinks the US economy most threatened by inflation. Total seventies vibes. That’s not what invoked the myth, though. Instead, it was how just like his ancient predecessor, the current Fed Chairman [...]
Rate hikes weren’t even a twinkle in Chairman Powell’s eye, not really. Taper was barely on the table at that time, let alone double-taper or today’s rush into QT. Back in October, they all (correctly) still used the word transitory, therefore officials were taking their sweet time winding down QE6.With the Fed barely evolving from full-on – so it couldn’t [...]
It takes time even for a powerful eruption of deflationary money to get sorted into the real economy. Nothing goes in a straight line and even big changes don't just happen right away. The last time, Euro$ #4, it began early in 2018 triggering all kinds of financial disruptions and monetary fireworks. The same familiar indications, rising dollar, flattening and [...]
Markets got aggressive long before the FOMC did. Everything, and I mean everything, has been trending the other way. Jay Powell says inflation risks are most pressing when markets have consistently priced the opposite for a whole lot longer. It’ll be revised history when ultimately the mainstream attempts to write it over the months ahead, many will try to snatch [...]
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