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About Jeffrey P. Snider

Give us a call at 1-888-777-0970 or via email at info@alhambrapartners.com to discuss how his unique approach informs our investment decisions. We'd be happy to discuss our investment strategies and provide a complimentary portfolio review.

(Un)Welcome Back ‘Dollar’

By |2016-07-13T13:19:00-04:00July 13th, 2016|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 3, the May payroll report was released shocking convention by its “unexpected” weakness. It was, and so far remains, the worst headline number since 2009. Because the suggestion of a far weaker labor market than policymakers have been claiming undermined their whole economic narrative, “markets” immediately reversed course and bid as if there would be no rate hikes [...]

Predictably, China Trade Falls Back In Line

By |2016-07-13T11:20:48-04:00July 13th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The inconsistency or unevenness of the economic data is a huge part of the problem. The world wants to move in nice, clean straight lines and nowhere is that more of an assumption than economics. There is some allowance for variation but that is always expected to be minimal. The past four years or so just haven’t seen much deference [...]

The Hope Trade Returns Though Severely Stunted As It Should Be

By |2016-07-12T18:50:49-04:00July 12th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

All it takes are the words “record high” and all economic or financial sins are forgiven and forgotten. The financial media cannot contain themselves whenever they get the chance to use the term, adding qualifications like “soar” and “sharply” to make sure everyone gets the message. Context need not apply because stocks are supposed to be forward-looking discounting mechanisms. However, [...]

Wholesale Zombie

By |2016-07-12T16:55:45-04:00July 12th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale inventories have ground to a halt, but since wholesale sales have also the inventory imbalance only continues midway already through its second year. Excluding petroleum, the wholesale inventory to sales ratio surged upward starting in November 2014. By the middle of last year, inventory growth had slowed but that only locked the current imbalance into seeming perpetuity. For the [...]

Two Times Was Convincing; Five, Maybe Six Times Cannot Be Coincidence

By |2016-07-12T13:18:13-04:00July 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

People are often mistaken for thinking the eurodollar is somehow related to the euro, but that is in many ways quite understandable. In reality, the eurodollar system is shorthand for a global, offshore monetary regime that is dominated by “dollars” but includes every major currency. Thus, the participants in these currency markets are usually the same banks, meaning that if [...]

Woe To Seasonality

By |2016-07-11T19:13:48-04:00July 11th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

So much of the basis for monetary policy was put in place in the 1960’s study of the 1930’s. It has become commonplace simply to assume 21st century tactics as being directly lifted from the start of the Great Depression. One of the causes of that calamity was certainly restrictive money supply, but any dereliction on the part of the [...]

Maybe Not As Much Difference Between LMCI and Jobs Report

By |2016-07-11T16:07:53-04:00July 11th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Even with the huge turnaround in the Establishment Survey’s headline number in June, the Fed’s alternate factor model could not manage a positive number. It was an improvement over May (revised), but nonetheless the sixth consecutive month of contraction. The monthly figures have been revised more pliably this year, but overall the view of the labor market from the Fed’s [...]

Magic Number Bias

By |2016-07-11T11:33:39-04:00July 11th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As an outsider, it is difficult to gain the pulse of Japanese politics. Viewing it all only from an economic or financial perspective is immediately too narrow. There is far more than just Abenomics at stake, though Prime Minister Abe used the crutch of Abenomics’ failure so far as somehow a benefit. There are other factors, perhaps more important factors, [...]

Only Spreading Monetary ‘Tightness’

By |2016-07-08T18:38:58-04:00July 8th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As an apparent consequence of post-Brexit uncertainty, the effective federal funds (EFF) rate moved up from 38 bps in “yield” to 40 bps, and then even 41 bps on June 27. That rather tame reaction is due to the fact that there is nobody aside from primarily GSE leftovers trading in federal funds. That the market rate moved even 3 [...]

Direct Line of Funding Warnings Show Up In Corporate Credit, Particularly IG

By |2016-07-08T16:58:27-04:00July 8th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the consequences of last year’s junk bond blowup was, unsurprisingly, a dramatic decline in high yield gross issuance. The numbers were pretty stark. According to SIFMA, high yield gross issuance in Q1 was 60% less than Q1 2015, following Q4 which was 47% below Q4 2014. As the market has come back since March, for all sorts of [...]

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