Top News Headlines Migrant crisis grips Europe. China finds a way to stop market from falling; trading suspended for parade. US stocks resume slide, down 3.4% for the week. ECB contemplates new round of QE. Markets shrug. Economic News Mixed employment report confuses rate hike calculus. Manufacturing still weak. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed survey, ISM manufacturing all less than expected. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 8/17/15 to 8/28/15 The economic data since my last update hasn't changed much. I know that is getting boring to hear but it does have the advantage of being the truth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, housing is doing relatively better, inflation is dead and the consumer is struggling - although apparently confidently so. The jobs market [...]
Top News Headlines Stocks succumb to gravity. Industrials join transports in official correction, down over 10%. S&P down almost 8%. Emerging markets enter the bear's lair, down 25% from recent highs. Oil cracks the $40 barrier - to the downside. Tensions high on the Korean Peninsula. Americans foil terror attack on French train. Kazakhstan devalues the Tenge. Yes, that's a [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard - 8/3/15 to 8/14/15 The economic reports since my last update two weeks ago are exactly equally split between better than expected and worse than expected. The narrative hasn't changed much, consistently inconsistent and wholly unsatisfying. Autos are doing well, funded by what appears to be increasingly shaky sub-prime financing, manufacturing in general though is doing poorly, [...]
Top News Headlines China devalues the Yuan. China lets Yuan float. China supports Yuan. Something happens in the Chinese currency market. Oil prices continue to fall. US raises flag over Havana. Dissidents' invitation gets lost in the mail. Tesla to sell more stock, profits elusive. Okay, very elusive. Okay, not frigging likely anytime soon. Dow chart gets a death cross; [...]
“Frog in a Well” (or “Two Steps Forward One Step Back…”) As the second quarter earnings season winds down, we appear to stand at a crossroads with investors and economic pundits alike, speculating on the real state of the global economy. Investor sentiment figures released by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) for the next six months (week ending [...]
I am lowering our risk budget this month based on several factors. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds moves to a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40 and last month's 50/50. Credit spreads have resumed widening as crude oil prices have resumed their downtrend. The downtrend in high yield credit prices may be [...]
Top News Headlines Dow falls seven straight days; longest losing streak in four years Bonds up for third week in a row; diversification does work Apple stock in correction territory Republicans hold first debate; Fiorina, Kasich biggest surprises Media stocks clobbered; Disney leads to the downside on ESPN woes Economic News Incomes up modestly, spending still weak ISM Manufacturing index [...]
Economic reports scorecard 7/20/15 - 7/31/15 The economic data releases since my last update were a bit better than expected but as the GDP report showed, the US economy continues to plod along at a disappointing pace. In fact, the GDP report was, in my opinion, not as good as the headline with investment a particularly disappointing aspect. I would [...]
Top News Headlines Chinese stocks plunge, then stabilize Linn Energy shows shale bust isn't over Whole Foods stock hammered on earnings Twitter beats estimates, stock makes 52 week low Gold stops going down Economic News Durable goods orders rebound, still down almost 3% year over year Dallas Fed improves but still negative Case-Shiller shows surprising weakness in home prices Richmond [...]
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