Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

COT Green: DXY’s Future(s)

By |2018-01-22T16:53:08-05:00January 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As with other prices, if we are interested in what’s going on with dollar exchange values (not be confused with eurodollars, the shadow conditions behind everything) we have to start with the futures market. Unlike UST’s or WTI, the one standing for the dollar index, or DXY in this case, isn’t particularly massive. That may be an unfair comparison given [...]

The Shadow on the Falling Dollar

By |2018-01-22T13:11:33-05:00January 22nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On November 29, 2009, the government of Dubai shocked the world with a statement acknowledging trouble with its debt load. Dubai World, a government-owned conglomerate that was the conduit for the country’s oil-fueled debt extravaganza that had literally transformed the nation, asked for a “stand still” from creditors in order to extend maturities until May 30, 2010. It came while [...]

Housing Construction, Hurricanes or No?

By |2018-01-19T18:55:24-05:00January 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The August appearance of Hurricane Harvey has made economic analysis a little more challenging than usual. That it was followed closely by Hurricane Irma only compounded the difficulty. What we have observed, however, is pretty much what we expected. In several economic categories and among various statistics, there was a rush of activity in October that in most places continued [...]

What About 2.62%?

By |2018-01-19T17:32:45-05:00January 19th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s nothing especially special about 2.62%. It’s a level pretty much like any other, given significance by only one phrase: the highest since 2014. It sounds impressive, which is the point. But that only lasts until you remember the same thing was said not all that long ago. Back last March, the 10-year yield had then, like now, broke above [...]

The Blatant Dishonesty of the ‘Boom’

By |2018-01-18T18:02:00-05:00January 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why do humans tend to behave in herds? It’s a fundamental question that only recently have researchers been able to better understand. On the one hand, it doesn’t take an advanced degree in some neurological science to see the basis behind it; survival for our ancestors often meant getting along with the crowd. There are times when that very trait [...]

Third Time’s A Charm?

By |2018-01-18T17:30:11-05:00January 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I find the article laughable. I should point out I am a millennial male though, so I would think that. We invest in bitcoin because we are BROKE, and you cannot earn any significant amount by working. And honestly, this entire market proves what we all suspected. Working is for suckers, it will not get you ahead, and money makes [...]

Fortress TIC

By |2018-01-17T18:31:12-05:00January 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Goldman Sachs reported FICC revenues of just $1 billion in Q4 2017. That was the lowest for the Wall Street firm, technically a bank, since it converted from properly a securities business to one during the worst of 2008. That was 50% less in “bond trading” than Goldman had produced during Q4 2016. You start to get the sense that [...]

The Dissonance Book

By |2018-01-17T17:14:25-05:00January 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve found the word “dissonance” has become more common in regular usage beyond just my own. Whether that’s a function of my limited observational capacities or something more meaningful than personal bias isn’t at all clear. Still, the word does seem to fit in economic terms more and more as we carry on uncorrected by meaningful context. The Buffalo News [...]

Is Un-Humming A Word? It Might Need To Become One

By |2018-01-17T15:59:21-05:00January 17th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Industrial Production in the US was up 3.6% year-over-year in December 2017. That’s the best for American industry since November 2014 when annual IP growth was 3.7%. That’s ultimately the problem, though, given all that has happened this year. In other words, despite a clear boost the past few months from storm effects, as well as huge contributions from the [...]

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