Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same [...]
49.2 Do Not Rule Out a Market Panic Next MonthA Financial Times column warns of a US Treasury Bill air pocket in March. Learn the little-known history of a mid-market, 1970s German bank that compelled regulators to move towards capital and supplementary leverage ratios. The very ratios that may now trigger uncertainty. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment [...]
Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to [...]
Sell-off. No, rout. Heck with that, Armageddon! It really had been that hysterical at times, and not just because it was declared a foregone conclusion. Certainly a big part of it, the faux certainty, more than that the gross overhyping of what really had been a relatively small change; the whole mainstream was afire with an inflationary mountain fashioned from [...]
With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a [...]
49.1 The Eurodollar World Tour: AUS, JPN, USA & GERWhat are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing away from a once-favored LIBOR alternative, and the ecstatic economic expectations of German financiers. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with [...]
A few have asked, so I’ve written up what is actually a shorter piece on this SLR business is all about. First, SLR stands for Supplementary Leverage Ratio (and it’s not SLF, as I managed to leave two of the same typos in the main article referenced below, to the point the mistake made it into the headline). Parts of [...]
47.0 BONUS MAKING MORE SENSE: Will Biden’s stimulus overheat the US economy?Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; generous fiscal stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only [...]
It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else. To begin with, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that US import prices were up on annual basis for [...]
46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential [...]
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