Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Good Payrolls Still Say Slowdown

By |2020-11-06T17:13:12-05:00November 6th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report for the month of October 2020 was a very good one. This shouldn’t be surprising, perfect BLS publications appear with regularity even during the most challenging of circumstances. Headlines and underneath, everything looked fine last month. It wasn’t perfect, however, and it’s the same things that leave it short of perfection which are entirely too familiar for [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 33; Part 3: GDP’s A Monster, Dollar’s A Ghost

By |2020-11-06T16:07:31-05:00November 6th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, redrum redrum REDRUM! Artwork by the modern day Gustave Doré, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Fugent" by Lupus Nocte at Epidemic Sound. ———WHY——— 33.3 Zombie (Economy) Apocalypse due to [...]

Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

By |2020-11-05T19:33:41-05:00November 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way [...]

There Is A Hard Truth To This Soft SOFR Arrogance

By |2020-11-04T19:19:37-05:00November 4th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are times when regulators are the adults in the room, spanking the banking system full of little petulant children who absolutely do require some disciplining. Take away their prop trading abilities or change the weighted calculation for some asset class or other. Maybe even some liquidity rules. The banks will stomp their feet and pitch a fit, but the [...]

Counting The Corroborated Stall, Not The Coming Lawfare Election Mess

By |2020-11-04T16:20:25-05:00November 4th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While we wait for the electoral count to be sorted out by what we hope are competent and honest people (not holding our breath), there’s a greater muddle growing where it actually counts and where it’s never fully nor properly accounted. By a large and growing number of accounts, the US economy’s rebound seems to have stalled out back around [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 33; Part 2: The Headless Bond Vigilante

By |2020-11-04T15:12:22-05:00November 4th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, redrum redrum REDRUM! Artwork by the modern day Gustave Doré, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Fugent" by Lupus Nocte at Epidemic Sound. ———WHY——— 33.2 Can the Market Absorb any [...]

COT B-und?

By |2020-11-03T19:38:16-05:00November 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We've been documenting for weeks now how every chart, therefore every market, shows some kind of inflection around and immediately after August 27. This was Jay Powell’s big Jackson Hole fiasco, questions about the global “V” having already multiplied since June were further compounded by the absolute joke that was average inflation targeting. As noted earlier, even Germany’s bund market [...]

Meanwhile, Outside Today’s DC

By |2020-11-03T17:34:17-05:00November 3rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

With all eyes on Washington DC, today, everyone should instead be focused on Europe. As we’ve written for nearly three years now, for nearly three years Europe has been at the unfortunate forefront of Euro$ #4. We could argue about whether coming out of GFC2 back in March pushed everything into a Reflation #4 – possible - or if this [...]

The Non-Election Election Mini-chartapalooza

By |2020-11-02T19:10:47-05:00November 2nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trump or Biden? Will we even know tomorrow? Many purport that markets are leaning one way or the other, typically based on whichever market leaning puts whatever preferred candidate in the most favorable light. Everyone’s a winner in the run up. I don’t think there’s a lot of trading that goes with either candidate. As things stand right now, from [...]

China’s 1st 15-year Xi-athon

By |2020-11-02T17:25:27-05:00November 2nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to one published study, the livestock population in China almost tripled in the three decades between 1980 and 2010. Not only that, the primary use of all those animals changed drastically, too. Prior, the backwards agrarian economy of the hardcore Maoist’s day didn’t eat its ox and cattle, rather such beasts of burden were used for the manual power [...]

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