“At least we aren’t Europe” wasn’t quite the standard for excellence Ben Bernanke was originally shooting for. Certainly not when he began QE in the United States, nor at the inauguration of its repeat not even two years later. The former Fed Chairman had promised recovery and delivered instead a highly disputed number of “jobs saved.”Framing it this way, the [...]
Europeans are growing more downbeat again. While ostensibly many are more worried about a new set of restrictions due to (even more overreactions about) COVID, that’s only part of the problem. The bigger factor, economically speaking, is that Europe’s economy has barely moved, or at most not moved near enough, off the bottom. To interrupt now what has already proved [...]
Milton Friedman first proposed his “plucking model” of the economy back in 1964. In doing so, he said that any economy is sort of mean reverting, in that any setback it might experience, a recession or some such, is merely a temporary deviation from the prior established trend. In his own words (NBER, 44th Annual Report): Consider an elastic string [...]
———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, confused and conflicted. Artwork by David Parkins. ———WHY——— 31.2 A Faux-Central Bank relies on Inflation ExpectationsReal central banks manage money supply. Fake [...]
They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage. Getting back to just even with February instead is becoming a distant probability, the kind of [...]
Their experience with COVID has been different in each case. Their response to the outbreak and pandemic hardly uniform. Mexico, for example, has reported 855,000 cases of the coronavirus from which more than 86,000 have died (or were found to have the disease when they died). Japan, on the other hand, just 93,000 cases with only 1,600 fatalities. We all [...]
The dominating feature during the last months and days of globally synchronized growth (Reflation #3, to you and me) wasn’t inflation nor growth. It was instead CNY. Taken at face value, the marvelous resurrection of China’s currency after 2014-16’s debacle (Euro$ #3, to you and me) did seem consistent with a global dollar system (eurodollar, to you and me) rebound.And [...]
———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, falling out of balance, splitting his differential and tipping the h— over. Artwork by David Parkins. ———WHY——— 31.1 Fed is Only a Bank [...]
The Federal Reserve is the current contender for taking the crown from the Japanese. Central bankers, in particular, are like hoarders; they never throw any policy idea away. It doesn’t matter how many times it fails, or how spectacularly. Japanese policymakers have stuck with QE for now double-digit attempts without anything to show for it. Instead, whichever thing gets rebranded. [...]
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