Calculated “inflation” in Europe disappointed again in March, as for the second month in a row the HICP rate was below zero. There had been some hope after the German version turned just slightly positive that it would herald a different sign for the rest of Europe. Instead, inflation rates in other places were mostly the same; Spain stuck at [...]
With stocks up and treasuries down, there were a couple of interesting contrary trades today in my view. For one, oil prices at the front end of the futures curve did not participate and have been down since the last FOMC non-decision. That may suggest funding and financing, as the overall curve steepened slightly where the front month was flat [...]
Household spending in February 2016 in Japan rose year-over-year for the first time in six months. That was the sum total of any good economic news for the monetary-stricken economy, and it doesn’t really survive closer inspection. The rise in spending was due largely to “other” activities you don’t associate with strong economic rebounds. The overall figure was just +1.6% [...]
When former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher stepped down last March after a decade in that role, the New York Times (of course) wrote his professional obituary under the headline Richard Fisher, Often Wrong But Seldom Boring. Fisher had apparently viewed his own philosophical root and career at the Fed as something of an updated Paul Volcker, not surprising given [...]
The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all the ways that were expected [...]
Janet Yellen thinks she wants inflation. The market thinks she's going to get it: The hawks at the Fed are losing the battle but I suspect they will win the war - after Yellen gets what she wants.
For reasons relatively easy to figure out, the massive flood of repo fails from a few weeks back was largely ignored outside of a few minor references. Not much has been made of it at all, and why would there be since it is really hard to shove the imbalance into “the narrative.” That isn’t to say that there haven’t [...]
The Markit Services PMI flash reading for March rebounded from the sub-50 reading in February, but only slightly. The calculation continues to suggest that the “services economy” is following the manufacturing and “goods economy” even if with some lag. The internals of the survey were not any better, with the new orders component falling to the lowest level of the [...]
As the indications of hitting a cyclical turn multiply against the steady and alarming negative trend baseline background, there is more clarity on how what looks like an unrelenting slowdown had not yet morphed into the traditional recession setting (the “V”). For the most part, it appears as if the business or corporate sector has absorbed the negative pressures not [...]
The “final” estimate for Q4 GDP was uninteresting save the update to corporate profits and cash flow. The upward revision to 1.4% wasn’t really any different than the preliminary or advance estimates, and since 12% of it was simply a guess by the BEA it doesn’t amount to a whole lot of solid analysis especially when in conflict with so [...]
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