Bonds

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 45; Part 1: All About Treasury, Sadly Not Buffalo, Bills

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-08T15:16:20-05:00February 8th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

45.1 Why Are US Treasury Bills in Such High Demand?There is a mainstream explanation for why US Treasury Bill rates are falling. There is also a Eurodollar / Shadow Money / Collateral System explanation. Jeff Snider reviews the two perspectives and looks ahead to where trouble may lay. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments [...]

Too Much TGA

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-05T20:09:27-05:00February 5th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you remember back to September 2019’s repo rumble, in its immediate aftermath - as well as for some time thereafter - a common explanation put forward for the disruption had been related to a sudden increase in tax liabilities. It was said that an unusually high level of especially corporate receipts had left the Treasury flush with extra cash. [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 44; Part 2: China’s Straight & Narrow

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-05-10T16:43:17-04:00February 4th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

44.2 China Announces 'No Sharp Turns' for Bad EconomyChina's economy reported positive numbers, yet they are anything but positive. Despite being the only large economy to grow in 2020, and in spite of analysts forecasting further acceleration in 2021, the "No Sharp Turns" policy implies concern of internal fragility. [Emil’s Summary] Ad Astra is Latin for “to the stars”, which is [...]

Reaching Half A Year, What’s The (Complete) Reflation Situation?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-03T18:08:32-05:00February 3rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tomorrow represents the 6-month mark for the Treasury market. On August 4, 2020, nominal benchmark 10-year yields declined to their absolute closing lows. Over the half-year since, rates have generally been on the rise which should be a long enough period by which to categorize our interpretations of what it all means.Most mainstream commentary places any upward trend (of any [...]

One More For Bill To Consider: 中国特色社会主义

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-02T17:45:23-05:00February 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Was it all mere window dressing? A con pulled by cunning Communists who needed to secure the collateral security of an intended transition toward the opposite direction? What a difference a few years makes, then, given how when Xi Jinping began his term in 2012 the word most in the West used to describe his agenda was “reform.” Every strongman [...]

Hey Bill, Why Now?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-01T20:24:50-05:00February 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think because the big, public failures of GFC1 haven’t repeated the public has been given a false sense of stability. While the idea of subprime mortgages being responsible for all that went on during 2008 has remained generally accepted, there was for a time an awakened recognition that big financial firms were doing complicated things in the monetary shadows [...]

Hey Bill, What Is It?

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-02-01T18:00:33-05:00February 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those people who will remain convinced forever forward that the Federal Reserve is run by capable technocrats absolutely skilled at maintaining for the free peoples of the United States their financial freedom. At a general level, they are thought to do so by signaling to market and economic participants just how these should respond to monetary policy inputs. [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 44; Part 1: The Long Silence of Depression

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-05-10T16:42:41-04:00February 1st, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

44.1 Linking the Long and Great Depressions to TodaySocial upheaval, mass unemployment and economic desperation - this isn't the first time. We look at how the modern unemployment rate came about during the crises of The Long Depression. Also, real GDP-per-capita growth comparisons between The Long and Great Depressions to today. [Emil’s Summary] Ad Astra is Latin for "to the stars", [...]

Let’s Talk Bills (again)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-01-29T18:04:12-05:00January 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those people who will remain convinced forever forward that the Federal Reserve is run by evil geniuses absolutely intent upon robbing the free peoples of the United States of their financial freedom. As evidence, they point to one unsuccessful, controversial monetary policy after another, none of them effective at accomplishing their main task of putting the economic and [...]

Oil’s Recurrent Re-Curving

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-01-27T17:37:46-05:00January 27th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The post-Pfizer vaccine rush pushed most of the contango out of the WTI futures curve. The aftermath of the Georgia Senate vote, and with it dreams of even larger, more carefree fiscal “stimulus”, drained all the rest. As of this week, the entire crude curve is once more contango-free; backwardation front to back.The physical markets have been able to fundamentally [...]

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