Tucked away in a quiet little corner of the BIS publication library, a study was published in the organization’s September 2015 Quarterly Review. One of the biggest mysteries of that time was Chinese “capital flight.” It was breathtaking, and it would only get worse. What was really going on? Many if not most mainstream stories focused on capital restrictions. There [...]
It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell [...]
In October 2011, the bank’s Chairman bristled at the characterization. His was not going to be a “bad bank” as many in the financial media had been saying. Pierre Mariani, chief executive of Belgium’s Dexia, preferred instead to call it the “residual bank.” No matter the label, the firm was being bailed out for the second time by the Belgian [...]
It was a poignant moment that has gone totally unappreciated. Lost in the noise about subprime mortgages, on August 9, 2007, what actually happened that day represented perhaps the best example of how things worked. Or suddenly didn’t. On the occasion of the 10th anniversary, I recounted the tale of BNP Paribas. You’ve heard of Lehman and Bear Stearns, countless [...]
Even though it was everywhere, one of the primary things that struck me about the peak period for Reflation #3 was how ridiculous it got. If you have a strong argument, there’s no need for so much hyperbole. But it wasn’t just that, it had become openly ridiculous. Interest rates had nowhere to go but up, “they” said. Fine, it [...]
As of trading on Friday, federal funds for the third time is now back to above where all this began. For much of 2017 and Reflation #3, the effective federal funds rate (EFF) remained steady at 16 bps above the RRP “floor.” Apart from month-end dumpings, it was consistent and predictable; the best of times, or at least what passes [...]
Maybe this was inevitable. After all, it is how things work in a lot of other places. When all is lost, that last thing that happens is the lawyers come in and pick through the bones. Christine Lagarde has been nominated to replace Mario Draghi as the next head of Europe’s central bank. She has a very long and distinguished [...]
The European slump had been a combination of several transitory factors. At least that’s what they had kept saying. ECB officials and staff Economists didn’t use that specific word, so far that’s the exclusive domain of the Federal Reserve. Regardless of semantics, the message was clear: the 2018 economy ended on a sour note but that was nothing to be [...]
It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving some of the growing economic [...]
Another discussion with Erik Townsend of MacroVoices about bonds, rate cuts, and what's behind everything this year. https://youtu.be/RvFBkFaPKoY
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