Markets

Repeat 2015; An Embarrassing Day For The Fed

By |2017-06-14T16:22:29-04:00June 14th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today started out very badly for the FOMC. At 8:30am the Commerce Department reported “unexpectedly” weak retail sales while at the very same time the BLS published CPI statistics that were thoroughly predictable. Markets, at least credit and money markets, have gained a clearer idea what the Fed is actually doing and why. It’s not at all what the media [...]

Valuations: It Is Different This Time

By |2017-06-14T15:57:30-04:00June 14th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

(with additional contributions from Margie Fernandez; edited by Joe Calhoun) The Net Worth of Non-financial Corporate Business declined slightly in Q1 2017 according to the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1). The revised quarterly figures suggest that economic net worth eased to $23.62 trillion after a record high $23.69 trillion in Q4 2016. That likely relates to [...]

Repeat 2014; Praying Again To The God of ‘Global Growth’

By |2017-06-14T12:20:27-04:00June 14th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the more troubling aspects of mainstream commentary in 2014 was its blandness. Statements were made with a purpose but also purposefully avoiding specifics. It was common to hear or read “the economy is improving” without being shown why or how in convincing fashion. After suffering a second bout of weakness in 2012 and 2013, unexpected of course, everyone [...]

The ‘Dollar’ Devil Shows Itself Again In China

By |2017-06-13T19:35:09-04:00June 13th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some economic and financial conditions leave a yield curve as a more complex affair. Then there are others that are incredibly simple. The UST yield curve is the former, while right now the Chinese Treasury curve is the latter. Even still, the media manages to make it something it isn’t because the world from its perspective is surely improving, and [...]

Deciphering Curves

By |2017-06-13T17:37:06-04:00June 13th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What is the yield curve supposed to look like? It’s a simple question that doesn’t actually have an answer. And because it doesn’t, there is a whole lot of confusion about bond yields. To wit: Chadha, the chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank’s U.S. securities unit, is part of a group of die-hard bond bears who say Treasuries have become [...]

A Possible First Step In Maryland

By |2017-06-13T12:41:40-04:00June 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Though we deal mostly in data, it is always prudent to remain connected and aware of anecdotes. It may even be more so in these kinds of times, where something like conditioning can desensitize analysis. Context is always important for any data, whether market or macro. My colleague Joe Calhoun pointed out recently a program in Maryland that has been [...]

American Expectations, Chinese Prices

By |2017-06-12T19:22:41-04:00June 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has for the past almost four years conducted its own assessment of consumer expectations. Though there are several other well-known consumer surveys, FRBNY adding another could be helpful for corroborating them. Unfortunately for the Fed, it has. The latest update for May 2017 suggests a considerable decline in forward inflation expectations, particularly those [...]

Given Past Few Years, C&I Slowdown Isn’t At All Surprising

By |2017-06-12T18:35:45-04:00June 12th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t much data available on the mechanics of lending or the other side of it borrowing. It’s a topic of interest nonetheless given the crucial role (sadly) of debt in determining the marginal economic direction (second derivative). A financialized economy is a drag without credit growth. One of the more encouraging signs on that account was an acceleration of [...]

Wealth Paradox Not Effect

By |2017-06-09T11:44:52-04:00June 9th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

US Household Net Worth rose to a record $94.8 trillion in Q1 2017. According to the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1), aggregate paper wealth rose by more than 8% year-over-year mostly as the stock market shook off the effects of “global turmoil.” It was the best rate of expansion since the second quarter of 2014 just [...]

Questions Persist About China Trade

By |2017-06-08T18:47:17-04:00June 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese trade statistics were for May 2017 better than expected by economists, but on the export side questions remain as to their accuracy. Earlier this year discrepancies between estimates first published by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), those you find reported in the media, and what is captured by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), backed up by data [...]

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