The November update for TIC figures shows relatively few surprises given what was witnessed November into December then January. The heavy downdraft of October was somewhat reversed, and even the official sector was probably less strained (outside of China) than at any time in 2015. But these are reactive symptoms to the greater problem of “dollar” availability, so the most [...]
If markets have rebounded today after the sustained selloff on fresh “stimulus” hopes, then one would have to wonder immediately what the background fundamentals might be. Setting aside all notions of past “stimulus”, the call for more would seem to suggest, quite strongly, something far, far less than desirable. Yet, in the same breath economists and brokerage firms would have [...]
Economics in the orthodox version has it entirely backwards. If that wasn’t apparent in the last cycle, it is becoming far more so once again. This descent into math is not limited to econometrics, as it says a lot about the state of popular perception more generally. Computer models and statistics are given the moniker of “science” which is wielded [...]
With quarterly earnings we get quarterly bank earnings. Interest in them should be heightened by all that has happened since June 2014. And it is, only for seemingly the wrong reasons. Deutsche Bank, the latest, reported shockingly negative preliminary results which only continued the trend. Even though the media largely gets it backwards, at some point as enough time passes [...]
It is said that a tsunami announces itself when the ocean suddenly and for no apparent reason recedes back farther than anyone could imagine. Left stranded are everything from beachgoers to fishing vessels of all sizes and even marine wildlife suddenly exposed to the open air. The spectacle creates a dangerous curiosity which the naturally curious humankind has difficulty avoiding. [...]
Despite continued cuts in production and supply chain activity, inventory through November persists in great imbalance. With December retail sales demonstrating a Christmas sales season only worse in 2008 and 2009, that isn’t like to have changed. It’s not as if manufacturers and imports have been robust to build that much inventory; production is already in clear recession. The only [...]
One follow up point to this morning’s missive about why the economy seems to be converging in recession rather than full and blossoming recovery: There must be something said about the manner of redistribution in this “cycle” as different from all others. In other words, the Fed has been attempting greater and greater redistribution efforts via monetary interference ever since [...]
Today’s radical reversal in stocks notwithstanding, the continuing hits of liquidations are not achieving their settled ends. In purely financial terms, the entire process of liquidation is to renew a settled state. Local imbalances force restriction of financial resources (what used to be money but now is something recognizable as such but truly not money) which triggers a cascade of [...]
For something that central bankers and economists were so sure wasn’t ever going to be troubling, oil seems to have become something of a communicable financial disease at the outset of 2016. If 2015 was somewhat sour and disappointing, 2016 was supposed to leave no doubt; it is, just not in the manner predicted. This morning’s headlines tell you all [...]
The official word from China, in the sense that whispers and unofficial back channels counts for any kind of imprimatur, was that last week’s huge surge in offshore yuan money rates was at the request of the PBOC using state banks to squeeze those damned speculators. It was perhaps an usual step to take in that the PBOC’s major efforts [...]
Stay In Touch