China has exhibited the tendency of late toward political considerations of certain economic and financial factors rather than allow open interpretation. That point has been expressed about Chinese GDP but it also applies to Chinese markets, particularly those directly connect to the “dollar” – the CNY/USD exchange rate compressed to a straight, horizontal line from March until mid-August and now [...]
Joining Anglo American and Kinder Morgan, Freeport-McMoRan announced the full suspension of its dividend. The clustered nature of these announcements only create questions about what might have changed recently, a possibility which actually holds very little mystery. After all, the company’s stock price has been falling steadily since about December 2010 (trading at about $60) so that surely isn’t the [...]
Now that Kinder Morgan has come out with a massive dividend cut, I think it will get harder to ignore that this isn’t just about crude oil prices and the death of “transitory.” There is a financial element here that is perhaps even more important. Kinder Morgan Inc., the biggest North American oil pipeline operator, cut its 2016 dividend by [...]
The fact that there is almost universal recognition of a “manufacturing recession” not just here but spreading across the world is a significant change. After resisting and ignoring as much as possible for more than a year, economic weakness is now no longer unthinkable. This is, however, no mere academic exercise as there are very real consequences as the former [...]
China’s trade estimates continue the trend of the global economy pushing closer to recession, assuming that it is not already there. We know that the lower part of the global supply chain below Chinese manufacturing and assembly, the resources and materials flow, has already been pushed beyond simple recession in some places, like Brazil, into defining a new disastrous economic [...]
While some are shocked that China may have “used” a huge amount of “reserves” in November, that is only because so many myths and anachronisms continue to abound in the mainstream and beyond. Any conversation about forex in the context of central banks and national government agencies is one that still views money from a traditional standpoint – as if [...]
Crude oil prices are exhibiting all the signs of an increasingly difficult funding environment. The front end of the futures curve is being bent dramatically in relation to even close maturities just outside the next few months. Such contango is the obvious imprint of finance, though that is not to say that economic expectations are neutral in the curve. Far [...]
Global Growth Recession risks are low and growth should improve in 2016. Excess supply is especially apparent in the raw materials/commodities sectors. This state of overcapacity/supply and a strong dollar combined from 2014-2015 to create an environment of falling prices and sluggish growth in global manufacturing. The services sector continues to perform well. Continued expansion in the US coupled with a recovering [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The incoming economic data continues to disappoint. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index set a record this year for the length of time it stayed in the negative column (data less than expected) of over 200 consecutive days. Even in the depths of the Great Recession we never had more than 100 consecutive days [...]
Top News Headlines 1. Terrorist attack in San Bernardino; 14 dead, 21 wounded. Husband and wife terrorist team killed in shootout. President Obama to address nation. 2. ISIS claims terrorists were supporters. 3. OPEC meets, no agreement on output. 4. Wild ride as US data and ECB roil markets. Economic News 1. ECB cuts rates, extends QE, markets demand more. [...]
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