Gold is down again today but the yen up past 119 toward 118.5; and the real crashing under 3.8 now. In other words, as yesterday, the “dollar” market is somewhat mixed. That view, however, is somewhat deceptive as the absence of further “dollar” pressure does not equate to renewed optimism and a serious move back near funding normalcy. A stroll [...]
There are only two numbers in the monthly payroll report that have any meaning, and both came up quite short yet again. The first, as always, is the labor force itself as that population estimate more than any other indicates the relative station of the US economy. There has never been any time in recorded economic history where economic growth [...]
Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. The economy there isn’t going [...]
I don’t think Mario Draghi panicked, but China is as good a scapegoat as any at the moment. The ECB’s intended adjustment in the PSPP (QE) is cosmetic, but then again QE itself is pretty much only that to begin with. It seems pretty obvious given the desperate lack of any positive impact from it so far, and the very [...]
The relevant part about eurodollars these days is that the term itself is a misnomer, or at the very least not a comprehensive description. “Eurodollar” itself is not necessarily a dollar (or even “dollar”) that originates from Europe, though it has been European banks that have formed the backbone participation for decades. The word is shorthand for any “dollar” that [...]
The re-crash of oil prices during the recent “dollar” wave/run were hard on almost everyone involved, economically and otherwise, but perhaps not more so than the ECB and its QE proponents. Despite being attributed with every minor upward move that could plausibly be assigned, for all the hype there has been very little actual movement anywhere of significance. The virtuous [...]
Factory orders gained slightly month-over-month on a seasonally-adjusted basis but collapsed in year-over-year unadjusted terms. The latter was due, only in part, to base effects of the huge surge in July last year for Boeing. Even factoring that somewhat ill-suited comparison, factory activity is still way down and, as other indications, only undergoing a slight pause in the downward trend. [...]
Today was, apparently, the perfect storm of downbeat PMI’s. As usual, sentiment surveys have limited value except in cases of outliers or in unanimity. There was some of both across the world’s manufacturing updates. First, which was certainly most watched, China’s PMI fell to a three-year low below 50, further suggesting that there isn’t yet a bottom for how much [...]
It wouldn’t be a day ending in “y” without some funky news about what the PBOC is now doing. Today’s edition includes the unconfirmed rumors of forex deposits. Apparently the PBOC is going to require, starting October 15 (are they trying to force the bottleneck?), banks to reserve 20% of some figure which isn’t at all clear at the moment. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 8/17/15 to 8/28/15 The economic data since my last update hasn't changed much. I know that is getting boring to hear but it does have the advantage of being the truth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, housing is doing relatively better, inflation is dead and the consumer is struggling - although apparently confidently so. The jobs market [...]
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