Chart of the Week – Lending Standards
The Fed and Treasury can guarantee all the loans they want. That doesn't mean that anyone will want to borrow or any banks will want to lend:
Those Three Weeks of Hysteria
Is three weeks a new record? That’s about how long Jay Powell’s performance bought him across most major markets. It was May 17, a Sunday night, when he appeared on 60 Minutes and, pardon me again, lied his ass off. One right after another, starting with the most obvious falsehood that his gang at the Federal Reserve “saw it coming.” [...]
Momentum Lost? Private Income Corroborates Possibility Presented By Claims
Entering 2020, before overreactions to COVID and the shutdown they brought, private income derived from all sources had slowed to the lowest rate since 2010 (not counting 2013, that year skewed by tax changes which were implemented finishing up 2012). According to the latest annual revisions for it, last year, 2019, was a bit more recessionary than previously thought especially [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 19, Part 3: Gold, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh Yes
----------WHERE---------- AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ----------WHO---------- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and outro is [...]
It Was Bad. The End. (not quite)
If that wasn’t the most anticlimactic worst economic quarter in history. The numbers were just as bad as people were expecting – which is the point. It’s not like this economic collapse snuck up on anyone, nor did its scale and depth. We’ve all known from the very beginning what the deal was going to be. Headline real GDP fell [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 19, Part 2: Gold, Dollars, and Bonds, Oh Crap
----------WHERE---------- AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/QjYJSF28W5QApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ----------WHO---------- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and [...]
That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”
Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market. This isn’t [...]
OMG The Dollar!!!
The way you hear it nowadays, the dollar just can’t catch a break. If it’s not a load of “V’s” indicated by some obscure data point (like the otherworldly spike in US home ownership levels), then it is Jay Powell who is clearly gunning for the US currency. He can’t kill it fast enough, having had more than enough of [...]
The Fastball Behind Strike 3
For a brief few weeks, reopening euphoria gripped the bond market. Well, not the bond market exactly, it was limited to the commentary surrounding a minor back up in nominal yields. Really, not much. This culminated in the May 2020 payroll report which was released on June 5. That was the one which “surprised” everyone because, apparently, nobody pays attention [...]
Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations
When people accuse the Federal Reserve of anything when it comes to inflation, they say the central bank is cooking the books to hide it. Back in 2000, for example, monetary observers were aflutter as policymakers shifted away from the CPI and to the PCE Deflator as their ultimate standard for broad consumer price behavior. The bastards, the latter widely [...]
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