Whether or not the Olympics in Brazil go off without any serious difficulties is actually an open question. There have been some athletes refusing to attend due to concerns over the Zika virus, while police and firefighters greeted travelers flying into the country through Rio’s airport with a sign that said “Welcome to Hell.” There are rumors reported in the [...]
In yet another anecdote that proves the global recovery can only be political, acting Brazilian President Michel Temer appointed Ilan Goldfajn to be the next central bank head for that nation. Goldfajn is about as orthodox as they come: trained at MIT (saltwater, as if makes any difference), former director at the central bank who has “consulted” with the IMF, [...]
There is a great deal that is wrong with mainstream economic commentary, starting with its unwavering devotion to orthodox economics and unshakable faith in their “stimulus.” No matter how little is actually stimulated there is never any doubt that the media will simultaneously forget the last one while lavishing praise on the next one. It is, however, the actual economic [...]
If China is most representative of the current state of the “dollar” economy, Brazil is surely most representative of its worst case. The country’s economy has been like China in slowing down steadily over the past few years, but unlike China it has descended already into a nightmarish level of distress. In other words, Brazil already has a Great Recession [...]
During the global end of the Great Recession, Brazilian GDP contracted year-over-year in just three quarters. The worst was about -2.5% in Q1 2009, but by Q1 2010 GDP was rising 9% again. With the latest update today, Brazil’s GDP declined by just less than 6% year-over-year in Q4, representing the seventh consecutive contraction that doesn’t look to be ending [...]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell sharply again in February, almost exactly as it had risen sharply in January. In fact, for the past year that has been the dominant pattern of sharp alternating swings between “growth” and “contraction.” Despite that, months showing up below 50 (this is still a PMI) are still somehow “unexpected”: Chicago-area business activity unexpectedly contracted in [...]
I wrote last week about the OECD’s sudden alarm over global growth “flatlining” but I think it important and relevant to further emphasize why. If you go back only to June last year, their economic outlook for the world sounds distinctly familiar. The OECD has cut its global economic growth forecast for this year but says it expects lower oil [...]
December was one of the worst months on record for foreign dealing with the “dollar.” The latest TIC update further confirms why January was under such persistent and heavy liquidation pressure in almost every corner. There was a record monthly amount of “selling UST’s” in foreign channels, a dearth of private “dollar” activity and, perhaps most important of all, bank [...]
If we have at least a good idea about the gross exposure to US junk if not who ultimately holds and funds it, the emerging markets infiltration is much more difficult to parse. There are only a handful of estimates that appear reliable enough to obtain a decent range estimate. The first comes from the BIS and was written in [...]
It is said that a tsunami announces itself when the ocean suddenly and for no apparent reason recedes back farther than anyone could imagine. Left stranded are everything from beachgoers to fishing vessels of all sizes and even marine wildlife suddenly exposed to the open air. The spectacle creates a dangerous curiosity which the naturally curious humankind has difficulty avoiding. [...]
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