Before World War II, in Japan there were four large conglomerates situated as vertically-integrated family-centered monopolies. Called zaibatsu, they were Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and Yasuda, and many other smaller rivals. Each group would not just own companies in all industries, they would also organize and contain an assimilated banking concern (horizontal integration) to carry out capital and funding needs for within [...]
Though most of Russia’s territory belongs in Asia, it would be difficult to characterize Russian finances as “Asian.” Most of the dirty work is done in the financial centers of Moscow, but in the past year and a half under the “rising dollar” paradigm, Russian financial existence may be more Asian than geography alone might permit. The similarities are perhaps [...]
From the perspective of foreign economies, the primary economic problem is US consumers. That sets up a contradiction as noted earlier today with durable goods estimates; economists think US consumers are quite healthy and the contraction in manufacturing is due to foreign economies. The inventory imbalance, or bloat as it was aptly described, cannot be an overseas problem and therefore [...]
This isn’t surprising, but events in China are accelerating. Just as the West heads into year-end coma, there is much to be concerned about on the other side of the Pacific. For, one, either the PBOC has taken off whatever means it has been using to suppress SHIBOR or the strain has become too much to bear. As much as [...]
It doesn’t work as the math is surprisingly simple. That is why “sweeping” changes and reform have to be considered at each point of escalation. Taking account of what has occurred only damages further the credibility and faith that is supposed to be the keystone for everything that happens. Instead, the only way to solve the historical deficit is to [...]
There are a few correlations that I find particularly compelling. The first is Chinese RMB (or CNY) next to WTI crude oil, as both are proxies in their own way of multi-dimensional crosscurrents between global “dollar” finance and real economy function. Since March, that correlation has come into renewed and tight focus. In the past few days, the CNY has [...]
Now that the FOMC has done it, we get to hear about how it was surely the “right” time for it. Unlike September, conditions are supposedly an order of magnitude more settled. That has given the policymaking economists the green light to make sure they start the normalization process before “overheating” becomes the central concern. With August a fading memory, [...]
Industrial production in China accelerated in November to 6.2% from an abysmal 5.6% in October. As per usual, any similar change is met with assurances that this time, unlike all prior, everything is working. It has become a regular game of ill-considered contention, as every single move in IP or some other factor that stops declining is immediately and confidently [...]
The latest developments from China’s monetary realm were the IMF’s inclusion of RMB into its “reserve” basket, and at a proportion greater than either the pound or yen. None of that is surprising, however, nor is it truly meaningful as a practical matter. The change is more of an official stamp upon what transpired long ago, with little bearing on [...]
There are times when you can distill the utterly complex into something elegantly simple. This is one of those times, as there really should be no doubt as to “what” and “why” about December so far. From repo to crashing EM’s to crude oil, the common theme is both eurodollar and Asian “dollar.” In that sense, it might be fair [...]
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