Last week’s survey data around the world was a bit more mixed than anyone would have liked, an obvious statement that yet deserves the emphasis. Europe, for instance, remains mired in a fog of zombie-like “growth” that is notable for both a distinct absence of QE’s promised impact and the related Japan-like steadiness that suggests nothing good about near and [...]
The TIC update for August estimates provided some clarity on several accounts. Given the nastiness of the “dollar” environment in that month it was certain that the Treasury Department would display negative “dollar” conditions, and that was the case. The numerous subcomponents and categories were quite useful in corroborating that picture, even if there was some work and re-orientation in [...]
Much like global “inflation”, if you set out to find global “demand” you will be hard pressed to find it. QE was supposed to be a huge boost to aggregate demand, through inflation expectations, yet the score in 2015 is hugely negative. Overseas problems are not unfortunately so remote, despite all mainstream protestations, as you can simply trace it all [...]
For those inclined to see only the positive side, the current downdrift in at least manufacturing globally still holds no special distinction. Either it is to be dismissed as a trivial concern unconnected to the “real” economy or, more blatantly, it doesn’t matter because it only means more “stimulus.” Thus, the positive side can never lose as every negative account [...]
This is fast becoming the “12% recession”, as economists and media commentary rushes to quell any notion of systemic economic retrenchment. If it isn’t “the dollar” or “overseas demand”, then surely the dramatic (and always “unexpected”) reversal of US manufacturing is but a novelty to be regarded as inconsequential on Yellen’s road to the Promised Land. Reuters author Lucia Mutikani [...]
With the ECB openly admitting worries about its own QE trying to justify more of it and then China on Friday adding its own mix, the third consecutive “double shot” just since June 27, you can be forgiven for considering the idea that all this talk about a global economic downside is finally starting to be taken seriously. A little [...]
There is always some chicken and egg to any financial irregularity; as in does a crisis cause a panic or is it the panic that causes the crisis? Though the evidence of the past eight years is decidedly on the side of the irregularity, central banks continue to press as if that were not so. In no uncertain terms, central [...]
In Hamlet, Act 1, Scene III, Shakespeare warns, in his own poetic fashion and style, about what should happen when always or nearly so looking for only the easy way forward: I shall the effect of this good lesson keep, As watchman to my heart. But, good my brother, Do not, as some ungracious pastors do, Show me the steep [...]
The US Producer Price Index declined 0.5% month-over-month in September, much farther than the 0.2% drop expected by economists (statisticians, really). With retail sales providing little positive emphasis even among the large segment of commentary focused exclusively on the monthly variation rather than the intense consequence of wider context, the idea that the Fed will confirm the final stage of [...]
With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves much as it did (almost [...]
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