With all the problems right now beyond Greece and China, from Canada’s “puzzling” recession to Brazil’s unfolding disaster, and even the still-“shocking” US economic slump, it is interesting that gold garnered the most attention in early Monday trading. The fact that gold prices were slammed in Asian trading was certainly significant, but that really isn’t why gold is being highlighted [...]
There is little doubt now that the “dollar” is wreaking havoc upon the global financial complex. Commodities are being battered almost everywhere, and in a manner not seen since the last version of “dollar” trouble prior to the March 18 FOMC “dovishness.” This time, however, there is almost nothing of monetary policy in the moves, just plain and pure uncertainty [...]
With Greece eliciting full uncertainty across the global financial complex, it isn’t unsurprising to see “dollar” proxies indicating tightness in almost uniform fashion. There isn’t as much a cascade, yet, as there had been in early October and early December last year, but the movement has finally coalesced. The “dollar” world had begun what looks in hindsight a slow turn [...]
It is Tuesday which only means that whatever oil trading takes place today will be easily overwhelmed by whatever interpretation about inventory levels released tomorrow dominates. However, the last week has been interesting in the respect of a shift in the behavior of the futures curve for WTI. Up until then, almost all volatility was concentrated in the front months, [...]
The price of WTI index crude has fallen back below $50 again as inventories rise far more than expected. That has been the theme of late despite the recent retracement in crude. However, looking at WTI via the futures curve, trading habits are increasingly locking in the outer years (especially past 2016) around $65 - $70 per barrel. That is [...]
Looking through all the various indications of the “dollar” world, there is seemingly to this moment a great deal of calm. This is in sharp contrast to December where bearishness and tightening were not just evident but dangerously so (across almost every part of the global financial system). But those two observations are not necessarily expected in sequence, as typically [...]
I mentioned yesterday in looking at the behavior of gold that it seems as if the “dollar” has entered a bit of a pause in its wider destructive reality of late. Maybe that coincidence with the SNB’s dramatic alteration offers an explanation for it, with renewed focus on the European end of eurdollars, or that these are merely complimentary of [...]
There wasn’t anything out of China that would explain, even partially, the big hit to copper today. Every commentator tasked with offering an opinion has linked copper to China and only China, yet the only economic news of note today was retail sales in the US. The World Bank did its part by cutting growth expectations largely on Asia and [...]
The primacy of the monetary pyramid in 2015 is not really about money as it is all ideology. If you believe that monetary policy provides “stimulus” then you immediately remove all thoughts of any economic decline during times when monetarism is most active. Since “it works” then all else must fall into place. Contrary indications are thus given extraordinary lengths [...]
The relative calm in China may have finally broken, as the latest ebb in the negative credit trajectory may have reached another inflection. It is well-known and established that the Chinese economy is heading toward what was only a few years ago thought to be recessionary (when 7.5% GDP growth was believed an indication of severe distress), to which commentary [...]
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