It has been out of hand for some time, but the longer it goes the further from sense it can get. Today’s news is apparently about a bipartisan effort for $1 trillion in “stimulus”, as if the last $1 trillion in “stimulus” had never happened. Apparently eight years is enough for memories to have been expunged, or as if IRS [...]
Rumors persisted in China of new foreign currency restrictions from state authorities now trying to crack down on corporate activity. The story was picked up in many news outlets all over the world, but will remain unconfirmed as it is based on reports from the South China Morning Post and others inside the country that have only claimed to have [...]
There are many facets to gold, which is as it should be. In trying to discern what ones are moving prices at any given moment, the complexities and really its duality can cloud the matter, often greatly. From the post-1971 traditional perspective, it is believed the preeminent inflation hedge. In financial terms, it is sensitive to shifts in relative interest [...]
For many, it was just too good. In early 2013, gold prices were slammed – twice. Just after QE3 was announced, gold had moved back up to almost $1,800 per ounce as it “should” have, reflecting all that future “money printing.” Rather than keep going, however, gold started to drop and then drop some more so that by the time [...]
Because of the linearity that is presumed a fact of cyclicality, economists and the media continue to be shocked that what seemed like improvement one month doesn’t mean much for the economy in the coming months. And so time and again we find where conditions appear to progress and are thus extrapolated into the long sought after rebound from “transitory” [...]
It was an impressive rebound from the doldrums of February 11. Stocks managed to get back nearly even, as the S&P 500 closed above 2,100 on successive days April 19 and 20. Since then it has been more of a struggle; sideways to slightly lower. Gold has remained near and above $1,250 while funding markets and UST’s have been bid [...]
It’s never a good sign when bank stocks are leading any retreat, but that is especially the case given recent events when several high profile banks were at the epicenter of early 2016’s liquidation rerun. As usual, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are the firms most mentioned and among those most disfavored at these times. The media struggles to find [...]
The PBOC wasted no time this week showing that it was serious about its desperation last week. The central bank fixed the CNY reference contrarily upward to 6.583 this morning from Friday’s 6.600. As we have been documenting during this unabated “dollar” problem, whenever the PBOC attempts a contrary maneuver with the fix it typically sets off enormous fireworks. Sure [...]
Crude oil prices are exhibiting all the signs of an increasingly difficult funding environment. The front end of the futures curve is being bent dramatically in relation to even close maturities just outside the next few months. Such contango is the obvious imprint of finance, though that is not to say that economic expectations are neutral in the curve. Far [...]
While the media remains fixed on supply, the rest of the financial complex is prepared elsewhere. On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced what the mainstream has been waiting for (and often blatantly demanding) since the summer “rebound” faded into August liquidations. Given the mythical status of Saudi supply, this was the one country thought to be the only possible savior. Crude [...]
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