Before embarking on the great unknown of Q4 2015, it makes sense to try to gain a little more clarity about Q3 2015. Specifically, the “dollar” run that blasted through China and opened the prospects for both an end to Fed/Yellen faithfulness and increasing uncertainty about the true nature of economy and finance globally began around July 6; a day [...]
It seems as if the PBOC is doing a whole lot and getting very little from it. That is actually expected at least to anyone not caught up in the cult of QE and the like, as that is the very nature of central banks dating back to the original at the Bank of England. Even though the focus has [...]
Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. The economy there isn’t going [...]
It looks like the reversal of Monday’s dramatic and frightful liquidation has held and gained in the past two days. From that we can infer, of only the near-term, that those forced repositions were enough to square the liquidity imbalance from the latest “dollar” run. The two words are related not just in a common semantic root, as liquidations are [...]
We have been talking about a global “dollar” run for the better part of two weeks, and at least a major “dollar” disruption looming going back three months. To say that any of the latest chaos is “unexpected” is intentionally obtuse, but it has already happened. As it is, I think we can expect FRBNY and the Treasury to issue [...]
Three-month LIBOR has just this month risen by a little more than 3 bps. That sounds like nothing more than a rounding error, beyond trivial, but considering it had only risen 3 bps prior going back to March the comparison of acceleration is what clearly matters. Up until August, the upward variability in LIBOR had been limited toward the longer [...]
Just a couple of noteworthy prices/developments around the close: 1. Repo rates have come back down, with the GC rates yesterday below IOER for the first time in 16 trading sessions (MBS). Volume in MBS has been quite light recently, with UST volume making up the difference. I can’t see any particular reason for such a marginal shift except the [...]
It was, apparently, just a one-day “dollar” reprieve for the crude complex as oil prices are pounded today across the board even after the FOMC statement (leak) release. Unsurprisingly, copper joined the depression as the September futures price traded as low as $2.2605 this morning ($2.273 as of this writing). That is, of course, a new cycle low in copper [...]
To start this week, Ma Jun, chief economist for the PBOC, gave an email interview where he expressed his belief that the yuan will be more volatile but in either direction. Many still took those comments as if it were a veiled prescription toward devaluation. In the near term, it is more likely there will be "two way volatility," or [...]
The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 was updated this weekend through August 13, confirming that market values in those “liquid” names fell below the December 16 levels for the worst prices since before QE3. There isn’t any further information on the reasons for the delay, though revisions to the BofAML High Yield indices suggest an answer. On Friday, the CCC and [...]
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