durable goods

Not Random; 2015 Still Matters For 2017

By |2017-06-05T12:29:01-04:00June 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I have never understood the infatuation with randomness. When I was first introduced to statistics at a very young age, I had a hard time at first trying to comprehend the paradigm in my own intuitive fashion. It seemed like something was off about it, where random chance was the cornerstone of a philosophy trying to describe and predict a [...]

The Disappeared Economy

By |2017-05-26T18:21:22-04:00May 26th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of April 2015, the Commerce Department reported that unadjusted durable goods shipments (ex transportation) had totaled $177.6 billion in the month of March 2015. That represented just a half of one percent year-over-year gain, but at a crucial moment in economic history the plus sign was quite welcome for the attempt at the “transitory” narrative. That estimate, [...]

Durable Goods Grow Indicating Lack of Growth

By |2017-04-27T17:23:17-04:00April 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Total new orders for durable goods, including orders for new transportation equipment, were estimated to have been $238.7 billion in March 2017 on a seasonally-adjusted basis. That is 9% better than the most recent low point figured for June last year. It remains substantially less than the record high reached in July 2014, though an anomaly in Boeing’s order history [...]

Durable Goods After Leap Year

By |2017-03-24T12:57:13-04:00March 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

New orders for durable goods (not including transportation orders) were up 1% year-over-year in February. That is less than the (revised) 4.4% growth in January, but as with all comparisons of February 2017 to February 2016 there will be some uncertainty surrounding the comparison to the leap year version. That would suggest that orders as well as shipments were somewhat [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-03-11T13:38:05-05:00March 11th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Economic Reports Scorecard The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again at their meeting next week. They obviously view the recent cyclical upturn as being durable and the inflation data as pointing to the need for higher rates. Our market based indicators agree somewhat but nominal and real interest rates are still below their mid-December peaks so [...]

Durable Goods Groundhog

By |2017-02-27T11:57:44-05:00February 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the economy is repeating the after-effects of the latest “dollar” events, and it does seem more and more to be that case, then analysis starts with identifying a range for where it might be in the repetition. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) rose 4.3% year-over-year in January 2017 (NSA, only 2.4% SA), the highest growth rate since [...]

The Cycle Repeats (And Repeats)

By |2017-02-03T16:42:32-05:00February 3rd, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Factory orders rose 2.0% in December 2016 year-over-year (NSA), the fourth positive number in the last five months. In what is a perfect commentary on the sorrowful state of the economy, it was highest growth rate since September 2014. It seems increasingly likely that the manufacturing recession attached to the “rising dollar”, the one that created a near-recession for the [...]

The Cycle Reduces, And Starts All Over Again

By |2017-01-27T17:37:37-05:00January 27th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nonresidential Fixed Investment, the GDP component most alike capital expenditures, broke above $2.2 trillion in Q4 for the first time in over a year. It was up for the third straight quarter, suggesting that perhaps the start of the year and its near recession could be the worst of at least the appearance of negative signs in business investment. As [...]

Flight of Durable Goods

By |2016-12-27T13:12:16-05:00December 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau reported last week that durable goods (ex transportation) shipments were up 2.4% in November year-over-year (NSA). It was the third time in the past ten months that shipments have risen, and the highest growth rate since December 2014. New orders for durable goods (ex transportation) were also up, +3.3%, the fourth time this year. Rather than suggest [...]

Now It’s A Boom

By |2016-12-07T13:20:20-05:00December 7th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There is a distinction between actual, meaningful growth and plain positive numbers. Recession everyone can agree on, as nearly every economic account (but not all) finds itself with a negative sign. Because of the binary model that the mainstream associates with all economic conditions, the absence of contraction is conflated with meaningful growth, even where the statistics are nothing like [...]

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