I think it pretty clear after examining the rest of the labor market that the pop in JOLTS estimation of job openings fits well within the idea of statistical problems. This is wholly unsurprising given that JOLTS is directly tied into the BLS’ Current Employment Situation report, meaning that part of the Establishment Survey forms the basis for the calculation [...]
Following up on the payroll disparities that were updated on Friday, it is still difficult to be confident that the economy is on any kind of solid ground. For starters, though the Establishment Survey shows 4.4 million new jobs in the 21 months since October 2012, for an average of 207k per month, the companion Household Survey is only at [...]
There are a few more pieces of economic accounts to put together before the disaster of a first quarter can be left behind (if only until the next set of revisions). A major part of the economic picture is derived from productivity, as that feature defines sustainability and ties together labor growth with productive investment. Capitalism is the combination of [...]
On Monday I examined the character change of post-interest rate targeting recoveries. By comparing recession/recovery cycles before and after 1990 it becomes obvious that the entire process of economic cycles has been altered. As such, the relative track of the Great Recession earned that name in sharp contrast to the much shorter and less dramatic recessions between the end of [...]
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that real average hourly earnings declined in April for the first time since last July. With hours worked stagnating from March to April (despite the assumed jump in the number of employees via the Establishment Survey) that meant average weekly earnings, adjusted for “inflation”, fell as well. So for all the celebration [...]
Back in September 2012 at the press conference for Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE, the Chairman was asked point blank by Pedro da Costa of Reuters about perceptions of it being a program that seemed more directed toward Wall Street than Main Street. The answer was the standard boiler plate assumptions that orthodox economists make in terms of aggregate demand. [...]
The surge in Japanese GDP in the first quarter has given back some cautious optimism that eroded significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. The increase in activity was not unexpected, only the degree to which it reached. Given the household spending data from earlier, this result was foreshadowed. And I think that the analysis of spending applies equally [...]
Since there exists more than a bit of doubt about the state of employment in the United States, at least outside mainstream commentary, that dissatisfaction with the BLS/Census Bureau leads observers and analysts toward other data sources. When speaking of jobs you would think it far more readily obtainable, particularly without the need to resort to statistical trend analysis with [...]
When the ISM index is sky high, it is proof of the magic of monetary acumen. Now that the more-important non-manufacturing index has fallen to a 4-year low, confusion reigns as to interpretations. My interest in the ISM is as it has always been, a relative measure of changes (not absolute levels). Thus, more important to me is not that [...]
Janet Yellen gave her first testimony to Congress as Chair of the Federal Reserve. You'll notice a distinct lack of gender in that title, one that Ms. Yellen apparently prefers, and I don't disagree a bit with her choice. The gender of the person entrusted with maintaining the integrity of our money is quite irrelevant. After listening to the views [...]
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