More data from various sources on primary economic parameters seemingly at odds. First, unemployment claims dropped to a five-year low according to the adjusted BLS data series. At the opposite end, Gallup's measure of employment fell, suggesting to Gallup that employment has gotten worse in January 2013. Since Gallup's numbers are not adjusted, it, rightfully, compares results with January 2012 [...]
The headline in the Establishment survey was quite a bit better than expected, but once again it was at odds with most of the rest of the employment report. The Household survey fell by 122,000 reported jobs, while 350,000 people left the labor force. The number of estimated persons not in the labor force rose to an all-time high of [...]
This was the second consecutive employment report that featured a large increase in employment levels estimated by the Household Survey. After September’s +873k, October’s survey yielded a gain in overall employment of +410k. While this has caused a spurt of optimism, it is actually the second time just this year we have seen this pattern ( a near exact repeat). [...]
Remember those Road Runner cartoons when you were kid? The hapless Coyote chased the Road Runner, laying trap after trap for him which all failed in some spectacular fashion with the Coyote inevitably bearing the brunt of the destruction. In almost every episode there came a time when the Coyote found himself rushing toward a cliff, the edge of which [...]
When the Senate Banking Committee meets Wednesday to question Jamie Dimon about the massive trading loss at JPMorgan Chase (JPM), its five most senior members will have one thing in common: a heavy reliance on campaign contributions from the politically connected New York bank. (Crony capitalism at its finest. American Banker) Every day seems to bring another forecast of impending economic [...]
The stock market continued to defy gravity last week in its ongoing attempt to make me look like a fool for trying to predict its movements. We've recently moved our portfolios to a neutral risk position from the more aggressive stance we adopted during the great sovereign debt scare of last fall and are contemplating an even more conservative posture. [...]
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