Given the rising concerns about the state of the US economy, and not just “overseas” problems, most commentary about it believes that a reduced chance in Federal Reserve action is driving most of asset prices and markets. Data today in the PPI (US & China, closely linked) and US retail sales were described to that effect. That contributed to the [...]
With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves much as it did (almost [...]
You wouldn’t know it from stock trading or commodities, but when China reopened after its latest Golden Week holiday there was an obvious effect. Stocks have continued to surge while commodities overall have had a good week (copper up another $0.07 today, with WTI at about $50). Inside the money markets, however, China’s open was met with far less enthusiasm, [...]
The doubts about the payroll report were taken as no doubts at all in “dollar” trading. The three indications I gave yesterday in terms of representing liquidity were all pushed farther after the jobs data essentially confirmed the direction where this is all likely heading. While the yen may have been more muted, and the “shock” wearing off in later [...]
It never fails when you issue a stark liquidity warning that in the day right after almost everything enjoys a nice rebound: stocks were up, including REM slightly, while even copper was bid almost $0.10 higher. There is, in all seriousness, no account for timing which is beyond any attempts here. In describing liquidity what we are taking into account [...]
On this side of the “dollar” world, credit markets have all but written Janet Yellen into irrelevance. Despite her pleas (because of?) last week, there isn’t any part of money dealing or fixed income that is taking her “certainty” about recovery and “inflation” as even a partial setting. So lost is the FOMC, that everywhere you turn these markets are [...]
While central banks would prefer to isolate oil prices as if in their own world with nothing at all to do with finance and economy more generally, it is oil prices that continue the disappointment connecting the “dollar” to the growing market (and therefore economic) wreck. Front month and spot crude prices had bounced around more favorably since the August [...]
The theme since August 24 in wholesale funding, eurodollar and Asian “dollar”, has been that even the global and intense liquidation was not enough to square the mighty imbalance that has been building. It’s a frightening prospect, but in money markets everywhere that is the only interpretation left. The media, unable to make heads or tails, finds small nuggets of [...]
By most accounts the Asian “dollar” was quiet last night but now the “regular” eurodollar is in full form. That might suggest greater care with these terms as the yen appears to be in that latter mix despite geographically belonging to the former. For purposes of clarification, then, since Japanese banks were among the original sources of the eurodollar buildup [...]
While outward asset markets have clearly been upended by the implications (at long last) of the Fed not doing anything, the internals of the money/”dollar” markets are actually worse. I don’t know if it could be classified as another forming “dollar” wave, but it doesn’t look good from this vantage point heading into an uncertain weekend. In many ways, the [...]
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