52.2 Taper Tantrum II: Yield Curve Twists, Badly?The US yield curve has twisted as Bill yields fall and Bond yields rise. We review a similar situation in 2013 popularly known as "the Taper Tantrum", WHICH WAS NOT A TAPER TANTRUM! Then - like now - a collateral scramble in Bills and a relief sell-off in Bonds. [Emil’s Summary] The theme of [...]
52.1 Fedwire Breaks: Anomaly or Trigger?Fedwire, the interbank system that transmits billions between 9,000-plus members, broke on Wednesday. The Fed says, "operational error" implying mere technical trivia - an anomaly. Why do some breaks stay mere anomalies while others trigger volatile, systemic consequences? [Emil's Summary] The theme of Making Sense Episode 52 is how an environment reacts to an anomaly. [...]
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed within the content are solely the author’s and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of the website or its affiliates. 51.0 Reading Around: Pettis On Tariffs and US Jobs Economic historian Michael Pettis' essay on why an "obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing trade policymakers in the wrong direction." A reading, by Emil [...]
DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed within the content are solely the author's and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of the website or its affiliates. 48.0 Reading Around: Myrmikan on System-Critical Short Squeezes Financial historian Daniel Oliver's essay on the systemic consequence of the 1907 short squeeze on United Copper Company and lessons for today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. [...]
50.0 Why Economists Kept Getting the Policies WrongJeff Snider reacts to two recent articles: "Bond yields are not good predictors of inflation" (Peterson Institute for International Economics) and "Why economists kept getting the policies wrong" (Financial Times). ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event of the summer: (Con)Tango & Cash. When an international smuggling ring uses the [...]
49.3 Week 48 of 'Record' Jobless ClaimsLearn how to reconcile a positive surge in retail sales with a nightmare string of 'record' jobless claims and lousy sentiment reported by the University of Michigan consumer survey. Perhaps pent up demand? Maybe. An unusual, poorly explained seasonal adjustment boost? Maybe too. ———SPONSOR——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! The motion picture event [...]
49.2 Do Not Rule Out a Market Panic Next MonthA Financial Times column warns of a US Treasury Bill air pocket in March. Learn the little-known history of a mid-market, 1970s German bank that compelled regulators to move towards capital and supplementary leverage ratios. The very ratios that may now trigger uncertainty. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment [...]
49.1 The Eurodollar World Tour: AUS, JPN, USA & GERWhat are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing away from a once-favored LIBOR alternative, and the ecstatic economic expectations of German financiers. ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with [...]
47.0 BONUS MAKING MORE SENSE: Will Biden’s stimulus overheat the US economy?Jeff Snider reacts LIVE! to an article from The Economist. The magazine offers three arguments why the US economy might overheat in 2021: evidence that the downturn is temporary; generous fiscal stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only [...]
46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential [...]
Stay In Touch