While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or do not, corporate junk remains [...]
For one, eurodollar futures are “obliged” to take account of any threats from the FOMC even though, in the end, they might only be self-fulfilling. Because the Fed has very little actual ability to condition money markets, none of that is truly “real” but there remains the unknown and money dealing agents still seem reticent about any kind of (further) [...]
I was rather content to let the matter lie after devoting a couple of lengthy expositions to it, but the Fed has its own way of confirming every charge. I am writing again about the fact that the assumed monetary agency was quite curious about the dramatic changes in banking and money at one point in the not-so-distant past only [...]
For those inclined to see only the positive side, the current downdrift in at least manufacturing globally still holds no special distinction. Either it is to be dismissed as a trivial concern unconnected to the “real” economy or, more blatantly, it doesn’t matter because it only means more “stimulus.” Thus, the positive side can never lose as every negative account [...]
Part 1 can be found here Long before Bear Stearns, there was Countrywide and a glimpse into the yawning abyss. But there was also Northern Rock, a UK bank, and a series of tremors and earthquakes rumbling across Germany. It was an entirely surreal period, as the once-mighty German system ground to a spectacular halt on, of all things, US [...]
Written Wednesday Oct 28 Credit Suisse has stumbled in its initial restructuring effort. Forced by Swiss regulators to deleverage more quickly, the bank has turned to several unenthusiastic steps in order to comply. The Swiss banking unit will see a partial public flotation not to “unlock value”, as is commonly described, but rather to satisfy systemic banking requirements in the [...]
Written Tuesday Oct 27 It bears repeating and re-emphasizing, but had the guts of the actual global financial system been fully appreciated in a timely manner the current state of the global “dollar” would be cause for celebration. It would matter not that the eurodollar is in full and often violent retreat because that is the exact method by which [...]
Written Tuesday Oct 27 Even though oil production inside the United States has declined over the summer, it’s as if oil supply is all that continues to matter. With oil prices down significantly today, as well as since mid-October, the incessant appeal of oil supply blooms yet further even though there is so much more than that to take into [...]
There is always some chicken and egg to any financial irregularity; as in does a crisis cause a panic or is it the panic that causes the crisis? Though the evidence of the past eight years is decidedly on the side of the irregularity, central banks continue to press as if that were not so. In no uncertain terms, central [...]
The further we get down the calendar away from China’s second biannual Golden Week the clearer the “dollar’s” influence on crude oil becomes, at least in the shorter maturities (and spot price). As usual, the “dollar” creates far more volatility at the front end than the back, where the longer maturities (recognizing more thinly traded months) tend toward economic considerations. [...]
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