With stocks falling today continuing somewhat yesterday’s post-FOMC selloff there was going to be universal citation of monetary policy; or at least these new expectations of monetary policy coming supposedly for June. The dominant narrative remains in favor of Fed power where stocks don’t do well without it. So as the central bank removes so very slowly its “accommodation” we [...]
In yet another anecdote that proves the global recovery can only be political, acting Brazilian President Michel Temer appointed Ilan Goldfajn to be the next central bank head for that nation. Goldfajn is about as orthodox as they come: trained at MIT (saltwater, as if makes any difference), former director at the central bank who has “consulted” with the IMF, [...]
On March 29, 1900, Louis Bachelier successfully defended his doctoral thesis at the University of Paris. It was breathtakingly innovative and complex, so much so that it would take decades for his ideas to be fully understood let alone adopted. This was the case even though his thesis advisor was none other than famed physicist Henri Poincairé and that he [...]
The Committee For Monetary Research & Education (CMRE) will be holding a discussion on June 6th at the University Club in New York. The topic is China and the Credit Challenge, which should be even more interesting given this weekend's economic update from China. CMRE brings some of top minds on credit and geopolitics to discuss the likelihood and dangers [...]
It was an impressive rebound from the doldrums of February 11. Stocks managed to get back nearly even, as the S&P 500 closed above 2,100 on successive days April 19 and 20. Since then it has been more of a struggle; sideways to slightly lower. Gold has remained near and above $1,250 while funding markets and UST’s have been bid [...]
Inflation is a complicated subject that has been devalued as if it were simply some variable in an equation. It starts with the very premise itself, as if an index of a bucket of consumer prices equals a comprehensive review of the subject. As Irving Fisher realized more than a century ago, money can go into places beyond any CPI’s [...]
It is a myth of the modern age, particularly post-1930’s, that the American banking system needed a central bank in order to perform the function of currency “elasticity.” There were, of course, several severe bank panics that occurred in the decades before the Federal Reserve but they did not end with its imposition. The worst banking liquidation wave in history [...]
It is absolutely clear that the eurodollar system last functioned on August 8, 2007. Starting August 9, nothing would ever be the same. In describing and detailing how it got that way (the sudden fragmentation between “dollars” in NYC and London, for example) there is a natural tendency to compartmentalize even realizing the drastic implications of what it all meant. [...]
Throughout 2014 and even into 2015, the word “decoupling” was resurrected to try to calm growing unease about the direction of global growth. It’s first broad usage was during the first part of the Great Recession, as economists were sure that emerging markets then would be able to weather the “slowdown” of 2008 believed at that time confined to the [...]
Goldman Sachs is cutting back more in its staff than previously announced. Though not yet confirmed, Bloomberg writes that the reductions in the fixed income business are being increased. After posting absolutely horrible results for Q1, the job cuts were expected. The continuation of them, however, seems to be more drastic than first thought even though “market” conditions improved into [...]
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