Are we approaching a surge in global trade led by the strengthening US currency? Here is a list of countries and their economy's reliance on exports. Here you can find countries that will likely benefit from a pick up in trade. As always, please feel free to contact me with any questions or concerns. Click here to sign up for our free [...]
In March 2009, only two days after the exact bottom in US stocks, Alan Greenspan took the pages of the Wall Street Journal to declare, declaratively, that the Fed was not to blame for the catastrophe. His “evidence” was based on this single supposition: The second, and far more credible, explanation [for the housing bubble] agrees that it was indeed [...]
I suppose this was not really a surprise given how the Japanese people seem to have simply accepted their fate, economically speaking, so the resounding re-election of Abe’s party removes any further sympathy from a people dooming themselves to this sustained, toxic course. The election itself was not all about the economy in immediate consideration as there were several other [...]
After months of hearing about how the fracking “miracle” is totally, fully and comprehensively responsible for the drop in oil prices there is finally penetrating reality. After the continued disruption in the Chinese economy as well as the close onset of recession in Europe, plus full-blown recession in Japan and Brazil, all that is left is really the diminutive hope [...]
The October trade deficit for Japan turned out to be the “best” month since June 2013. While commentary has been quick and sharp about an export-led recovery path, actual analysis of what is taking place would lead to the opposite conclusion. This is revealed by simple geography. A full part of the problem starts with context, in that a ¥710 [...]
There was not much good news from China last night, particularly as there were no PMI releases to allow the media and economists to project uncorrelated optimism. Everything from industrial production to retail sales came in under “estimates”, with industrial production in October particularly worrisome as the second worst month (only better than August) since 2008 and the depths of [...]
In what can only be an intentional trial balloon, the Abe government in Japan is making noise about delaying the next scheduled tax increase. Considered to be one of the important “arrows” in Abenomics, this is an especially stark admission that orthodox economics has not (yet again) delivered on its promise. When QQE was started in April 2013, there were [...]
The re-emergence of “tight” dollar “supply” has created much the same problems as had been seen prior to October. That means the usual places exhibit duress to varying degrees. What I don’t think is really appreciated is how this year’s episode is transformative toward a different set “ruling” the global dollar short. In one sense, it is not surprising to [...]
Despite all domestic reports to the contrary, the rest of the world is having a very difficult time seeing any recovery yet in the United States economy. With recent trade data in hand, it is not difficult to discern why oil prices are heading so much lower and the Chinese (and then Brazil and every other resource economy) are left [...]
Most of what accounts for GDP is nothing but noise, leaving only a few major indications about what the economy is doing (or not doing). Prior to 2008, that wasn’t much of a problem as GDP by and large seemed to correlate well with other estimations of economic progress, and even our own intuitive perceptions. If you go back historically, [...]
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