industrial production

Is GFC2 Over?

By |2020-03-17T19:47:28-04:00March 17th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Is it over? That’s the question everyone is asking about both major crises, the answer is more obvious for only the one. As it pertains to the pandemic, no, it is not. Still the early stages. The other crisis, the global dollar run? Not looking like it, either. Stocks rebounded because of “major helicopter stimulus” or because that’s just what [...]

Unprecedented in China, Yes, But Then What?

By |2020-03-16T12:55:25-04:00March 16th, 2020|Markets|

These numbers are essentially meaningless. They aren’t completely devoid of content, of course, just that such substance is of limited use. The Chinese have confirmed that their economy had shut down in the January-February period. The estimates for the Big 3 accounts were way below any and every consensus, thus demonstrating the severity of the disruption. First, the figures: Industrial [...]

What Happens When Central Banks Buy Stocks (ETFs)? Well, We Already Know

By |2020-03-11T13:03:58-04:00March 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Can we please dispense with all notions that monetary policy works? Specifically balance sheet expansion via any scale asset purchase programs. Nowhere has that been more apparent than Japan. Go back and reread all the promised benefits from BoJ’s Big Bang QQE that were confidently written in 2013. The biggest bazooka ever conceived has fallen short in every conceivable way. [...]

Schaetze To That

By |2020-02-24T19:19:55-05:00February 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil. The non-standard [...]

European Data: Much More In Store For Number Four

By |2020-02-14T18:29:01-05:00February 14th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s just Germany. It’s just industry. The excuses pile up as long as the downturn. Over across the Atlantic the situation has only now become truly serious. The European part of this globally synchronized downturn is already two years long and just recently is it becoming too much for the catcalls to ignore. Central bankers are trying their best to, [...]

US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free

By |2020-02-14T17:18:26-05:00February 14th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The lull in US consumer spending on goods has reached a fifth month. The annual comparisons aren’t good, yet they somewhat mask the more recent problems appearing in the figures. According to the Census Bureau, total retail sales in January rose 4.58% year-over-year (unadjusted). Not a good number, but better, seemingly, than early on in 2019 when the series was [...]

I For One Welcome Our New Robot Overlords

By |2020-02-12T17:24:57-05:00February 12th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fears over machines aren’t anything new. The Terminator franchise got started in the eighties and was hardly original back then. In gross economic terms, it may seem like the robot invasion is a 21st century phenomenon. It isn’t. One need only go back to Alberta of all places and learn about the Canadian Clifford Hugh Douglas. Douglas preached something called [...]

As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

By |2020-02-11T19:33:47-05:00February 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a [...]

Two Years And Now It’s Getting Serious

By |2020-02-07T19:04:36-05:00February 7th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We knew German Industrial Production for December 2019 was going to be ugly given what deStatis had reported for factory orders yesterday. In all likelihood, Germany’s industrial economy ended last year sinking and maybe too quickly. What was actually reported, however, exceeded every pessimistic guess and expectation – by a lot. IP absolutely plummeted in the final month of 2019. [...]

The Big And Small of Leading Japan

By |2020-01-21T18:47:02-05:00January 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of 2018, Japan, they said, was riding so high. Gliding along on the tidal wave of globally synchronized growth, Haruhiko’s courage and more so patience had finally delivered the long-promised recovery. The Japanese economy had healed to a point that its central bank officials believed it time to wean the thing off decades of monetary “stimulus.” They [...]

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