It’s been said that you can’t please everyone all the time. But can you fool enough people some of the time? That’s Jay Powell’s game in a nutshell. He’s got the world believing the Federal Reserve is out here printing gobs of money and sending a tidal wave careening throw the whole economy (stock market first). Nope. Monetary policy is [...]
It was only three years ago, so you’d think narratives today would at least try to account for relevant recent history. If that prior first fit of inflation hysteria had a birthdate, it would’ve probably been December 18 or 19, 2017. On the former, the US House of Representatives passed their version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA); [...]
The Presidential election was supposed to have been a big one. Yields were low, or high, based on how whichever expert or financial media article was interpreting the manner of trading in bond markets. You could take your pick; a “blue wave” was bad, as in BOND ROUT!!! due to inflation and potential for even more (how?) spendthrift ways in [...]
What’s interesting about vaccine-phoria is that it’s largely been contained to just the one part of the bond market. Nominal Treasury yields at the long end have surged, while those at the shorter end have moved up a bit, too. Predictably, the calls for the BOND ROUT!!!! have grown, typically referencing the guaranteed end of the so-called 40-year bond “bull.” [...]
The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate for that month hit five [...]
We've been documenting for weeks now how every chart, therefore every market, shows some kind of inflection around and immediately after August 27. This was Jay Powell’s big Jackson Hole fiasco, questions about the global “V” having already multiplied since June were further compounded by the absolute joke that was average inflation targeting. As noted earlier, even Germany’s bund market [...]
Trump or Biden? Will we even know tomorrow? Many purport that markets are leaning one way or the other, typically based on whichever market leaning puts whatever preferred candidate in the most favorable light. Everyone’s a winner in the run up. I don’t think there’s a lot of trading that goes with either candidate. As things stand right now, from [...]
This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here?What you’ll hear or have already heard is something about Europe and more lockdowns, fears about a second wave of the [...]
You pick up a newspaper (metaphorically, hardly anyone does this literally anymore) and you’d be left with the impression the year is 1979 again. Forget 2017; that was child’s play, more like 1968 in the mainstream imagination. October 2020 is going to mark the beginning of the biggest one in decades. Any day now.Inflation, of course. The Fed, the media [...]
The molehills get even smaller simply because there’s never any mountains. The conventional view, no surprise, is looking at this situation exactly backward and trying to impose an idea that just doesn’t fit. Upside down, if you prefer.A smooth Presidential election in the US plus the smooth transition into Jay Powell’s monetary ecstasy of inflation is going to bring on [...]
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