Written Monday Oct 26 If China and Europe provided any boost to mainline sentiment last week, everyone looks to Japan this week for perhaps disappointment, though there isn’t any good reason why. Perhaps as a fitting description of this current situation, one that I think appears more inevitable by the day and the week, the Bank of Japan apparently sits [...]
There probably should be a cottage industry trying to figure out what Albert Einstein actually said or wrote quite against what is typically attributed to him (or Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and many others). One such nugget purported from his genius was that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. That is how the sentiment seems to [...]
It may be unexpected to economists, but the sudden and uniform economic downside that is either appearing or strengthening almost everywhere in the world is closely tracking the wholesale “dollar.” In many cases, that flows through China and so is given that gloss, but there can be little doubt now about either cause or effect. In Japan, machine orders (a [...]
The Census Bureau updated US trade activity for August, with export activity dropping almost 11% year-over-year. The global economy is clearly falling apart, no matter how much economists wish to see the dollar (exchange rate fluctuations) where the “dollar” (wholesale finance pulling back leading to economic disarray) already is. Export activity is only a little short of the trough of [...]
The doubts about the payroll report were taken as no doubts at all in “dollar” trading. The three indications I gave yesterday in terms of representing liquidity were all pushed farther after the jobs data essentially confirmed the direction where this is all likely heading. While the yen may have been more muted, and the “shock” wearing off in later [...]
While the slide in US manufacturing is being interpreted far differently as nothing to worry about, overseas the recessionary implications are forthrightly described. The contradiction is amazing simply because the same pattern is given such different interpretation even where they are closely synchronized and both given amorphous “global” growth connotations. In Japan, contraction in industry due to “global growth” is [...]
Here is a table of recommendations for regional equity allocation from our research partner. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and global portfolio approach, Douglas R. Terry, CFA is reachable at: dterry@4kb.d43.myftpupload.com This material has been distributed for informational purposes only. It is the opinion of the [...]
With global economic perceptions finally creeping toward financial perceptions (not stocks) despite the enormous and mostly ongoing “stimulus” almost everywhere, it is useful to review once more the assumed general mechanisms. Step 1 is really the most basic and traditional element of central banking, as liquidity, broadly speaking here, is currency elasticity in its more modern format. Increasing liquidity is [...]
With close experience to the “dollar” run in July and August, we should expect that at least the contours of that disorder would be visible in the TIC data for July. The figures provided by the Treasury Dept. did not disappoint. In fact, the “dollar” waves themselves become almost fully visible in the data here and have really illuminated the [...]
The moment you add the yen to any larger financial discussion it inevitably brings out passionate response. I think that is derived partially from its status as unbelievably durable; if there is one currency in the world that “deserves”, so to speak, ultimate execution it is that of the Japanese. The Bank of Japan has done more than any other [...]
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