There is still no evidence that the US economy is doing anything but continued sputtering. This is not news to the rest of the world, however, as the persistent lack of actual American “demand” has been felt nearly everywhere. Domestic economists, and a great many foreign counterparts, continue to see the US as the sole engine of economic hope. But [...]
It wouldn’t be “reform” if it wasn’t seemingly contradictory and confusing. It is increasingly apparent that investors and observers look at everything in binary terms; something either isn’t or it is. In China, the entire premise of what they are doing takes more than one form, as it can look to be conflicting in the sense that the PBOC both [...]
On January 20, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released its full-year report on Chinese GDP. The introduction makes no mistake about what the Chinese government wishes to see out of the Chinese economy: In 2014, faced with the complicated and volatile international environment and the heavy tasks to maintain the domestic development, reform and stability, the Central Party Committee [...]
Unlike previous moves in China, this one in the middle of December caught very little notice. Perhaps that was because the big reduction in the eligibility of repo collateral had “markets” and economists on their heels in disarray about what it was all supposed to mean in the context of obviously (perhaps a touch dangerously) slowing growth. To go along [...]
It almost seems to be a case of traders seeing exactly what they want to see instead of believing their “lying eyes.” Money rates in China have declined in the past few days as speculation abounds that the PBOC reduced the interest rate on its rollovers of the second part of the Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF). The PBOC had [...]
Given all that has transpired in China this past year, year and a half it is likely that confusion will continue if only due to bias and preconceptions about “omniscience” in central banking. For my part, the PBOC has been unusually open and candid about “what” it is doing, particularly in the framework of the high degree of secrecy under [...]
There has been nothing good out of China in the past few months, which is why the call for more action by the PBOC has only grown. Despite what are really clear intentions, economists continue to look at financial operations in China as if it were still 2010 or even 2012. When the China PMI disappointed (for whatever that is [...]
With the latest TIC data in hand it looks more and more like “dollar” problems started in the interior and spread outward. What I mean by that is eurodollar banks were the first to see or cause disruption which radiated outward into other currencies and credit systems. That would seem to confirm (for me, anyway) the ECB’s role in kicking [...]
It is really amazing how condensed events have become once the economic and financial world shifted off its axis in August 2007. What used to be conventional wisdom about monetary affairs before then has long since been forgotten to the point that “emergency” measures that appeared in the months thereafter now pass for “normal.” However, the idea of “normal” in [...]
With Chinese industrial production in November “unexpectedly” weak, coming in at the second lowest rate since December 2008, Pavlov’s dogs are barking again much louder in the direction of the PBOC. It’s not as if this is a one-time dip in production levels, as the weakest growth rate was achieved only a few months ago in August (but the PMI’s!). [...]
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