I wrote last week about the OECD’s sudden alarm over global growth “flatlining” but I think it important and relevant to further emphasize why. If you go back only to June last year, their economic outlook for the world sounds distinctly familiar. The OECD has cut its global economic growth forecast for this year but says it expects lower oil [...]
It is said that a tsunami announces itself when the ocean suddenly and for no apparent reason recedes back farther than anyone could imagine. Left stranded are everything from beachgoers to fishing vessels of all sizes and even marine wildlife suddenly exposed to the open air. The spectacle creates a dangerous curiosity which the naturally curious humankind has difficulty avoiding. [...]
Though most of Russia’s territory belongs in Asia, it would be difficult to characterize Russian finances as “Asian.” Most of the dirty work is done in the financial centers of Moscow, but in the past year and a half under the “rising dollar” paradigm, Russian financial existence may be more Asian than geography alone might permit. The similarities are perhaps [...]
The problem with Brazil is that its central bank has done everything the monetary textbook requires of it. Setting aside that Banco itself is a literal mishmash of public and private interests (what central bank isn’t?), the freefall in the Brazilian economy of late is simply puzzling to the mainstream. Unlike the US or Europe, at least the descent is [...]
There is always some chicken and egg to any financial irregularity; as in does a crisis cause a panic or is it the panic that causes the crisis? Though the evidence of the past eight years is decidedly on the side of the irregularity, central banks continue to press as if that were not so. In no uncertain terms, central [...]
With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves much as it did (almost [...]
It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and even those like the Indian [...]
Janet Yellen wasn’t the only central banker boxed in by recent “dollar” strife. The Brazilian central bank sparked a counter rally in the real after it had crashed to an all-time low. After absorbing a relentless and devastating devaluation, Banco do Brasil had run itself out of further options. They had already claimed that raising the benchmark SELIC rate to [...]
By most accounts the Asian “dollar” was quiet last night but now the “regular” eurodollar is in full form. That might suggest greater care with these terms as the yen appears to be in that latter mix despite geographically belonging to the former. For purposes of clarification, then, since Japanese banks were among the original sources of the eurodollar buildup [...]
If for the Asian “dollar”, then China’s inability to place an economic bottom is a problem for every market and economy. The more hopeful mainstream rhetoric from the summer is now gone, just as the “dollar” would have it. China’s variations have far too closely matched these “dollar” waves which, in the midst of another, is not a hopeful sign [...]
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