For most commentary on the recent and sharp decline in oil prices, there is a serious ceteris paribus to it especially from those that don’t recognize that there are much deeper financial forces. The following is excerpted as an example of the closed system approach, as if there is a world of difference that can allow “decoupling.” What matters is [...]
I suppose this was not really a surprise given how the Japanese people seem to have simply accepted their fate, economically speaking, so the resounding re-election of Abe’s party removes any further sympathy from a people dooming themselves to this sustained, toxic course. The election itself was not all about the economy in immediate consideration as there were several other [...]
One of the most curious aspects of the FOMC’s apparent rush to end its “accommodation” is the distinct lack of any market-based reinforcement. Using only statistical analysis of economic accounts, the Fed is, in effect, saying that it is ignoring all market indications contrary to its main assessment. That extends not just to overall economic measures but also, referring to [...]
It is really amazing how condensed events have become once the economic and financial world shifted off its axis in August 2007. What used to be conventional wisdom about monetary affairs before then has long since been forgotten to the point that “emergency” measures that appeared in the months thereafter now pass for “normal.” However, the idea of “normal” in [...]
The amount of credit market fireworks this week is only surpassed by those of October 15. Everywhere you look, credit markets are not just growing bearish but, as I said earlier in the week, bearish in comparison with past crisis periods. The past few days have surpassed even that observation, making credit now a fast-moving indicator of still nothing good. [...]
It is amazing the speed at which FOMC officials have embraced not falling oil prices but collapsing crude. The pace of the decline is being driven, contrary to the fracking miracle, by the fact that nobody seems to want to bid on the stuff. That is, as I noted earlier, a demand problem. But officials like Fed Vice Chair Stanley [...]
With Chinese industrial production in November “unexpectedly” weak, coming in at the second lowest rate since December 2008, Pavlov’s dogs are barking again much louder in the direction of the PBOC. It’s not as if this is a one-time dip in production levels, as the weakest growth rate was achieved only a few months ago in August (but the PMI’s!). [...]
The initial indications from private retail metrics on the Black Friday kickoff were not good, though numerous attempts to downplay those results were initiated. The monthly retail sales figures from the Census Bureau will make that much harder as they square with the downbeat Black Friday estimates. In other words, Black Friday wasn’t “off” because consumers were “pulled” to shop [...]
For months now, really going back to the summer, the obvious decline in Chinese economic function has produced a resounding expectation that the PBOC would come to the rescue. It was taken axiomatically such was this Pavlovian reflex. Everything the PBOC did over the summer was characterized in that context: the introduction of the PSL and its implementation largely with [...]
Like the initial or preliminary GDP report in Japan for Q3, the first revision caught almost every economist totally the wrong way. Expectations were for upward re-figuring which should have been taken as a contrarian signal. And sure enough, December’s revisions to Q3 GDP were in the opposite direction as expected, and for all the reasons that economists are “experts” [...]
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