recovery

Business Cycles, Bubbles and Changing Valuations

By |2015-03-13T10:34:54-04:00March 13th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The function of recession is not just some negative numbers that appear from seemingly nowhere, though that is how convention sees it of “unforeseeable” trends and “shocks. It may take the NBER years in some cases to declare, officially, a cycle peak but that doesn’t mean there aren’t warning signs much closer to the event. Among them is, again, not [...]

Reality on China, Finally

By |2015-03-11T09:39:26-04:00March 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China remains an export economy no matter how hard they try to convince the world they are moving otherwise. The idea of creating internal “demand” as a means to extricate marginal changes from everybody else is undoubtedly a good idea, even a noble one, but the reality of China as it exists top-down isn’t conducive for such a transformation. Further, [...]

Inaccuracy or Misconduct?

By |2015-02-17T18:15:01-05:00February 17th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With new figures on Japan’s GDP released, it is becoming increasingly clear the disparity between what is supposed to happen and what has actually taken place. The main operative theory by which everything has been supported takes “aggregate demand” literally; in that all demand is essentially a perfect substitute for itself. In other words, monetary theory posits that demand of [...]

Breakdown In GDP

By |2015-01-30T18:19:04-05:00January 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

GDP as an econometric measure is designed to be most favorable toward growth. It accumulates all forms of spending, in dollar terms, treating them exactly the same regardless of source or destination. That is consistent with orthodox theory which holds onto the concept of “aggregate demand”, meaning that all demand is supposedly interchangeable. Thus whatever the source or reason for [...]

Global Credit Markets Have Proclaimed An End To The Recovery

By |2014-12-12T18:14:26-05:00December 12th, 2014|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The amount of credit market fireworks this week is only surpassed by those of October 15. Everywhere you look, credit markets are not just growing bearish but, as I said earlier in the week, bearish in comparison with past crisis periods. The past few days have surpassed even that observation, making credit now a fast-moving indicator of still nothing good. [...]

CBO: QE Failed As It Has Shown Nothing For The Economy

By |2014-11-25T17:35:42-05:00November 25th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I have said before, the handoff from Bernanke to Yellen was significant not just in terms of background but also in philosophy and viewpoint. Both were strictly academic statisticians (they call themselves economists) but there was an immense shift about QE. To be fair, there is some evidence that thoughts about QE had changed during the last year of [...]

Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak

By |2014-11-19T15:47:32-05:00November 19th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Next to Japan’s “unexpected” re-acquaintance with recession, the most serious indication of global economic distress has to be oil prices. And where commentary turned to “explaining” Japanese recession as related to a small attempt at fiscal discipline rather than the more debilitating flirtation with intentional debasement, convention surrounding the precipitous plunge in crude is desperately trying to direct toward “supply.” [...]

From Unqualified ‘Savior’ To Afterthought In Only Five Months

By |2014-11-17T15:51:49-05:00November 17th, 2014|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s figures last week were not “helpful” to the “global growth” narrative, and now Japan and Europe have contributed their share of turning sentiment. It seems as if credit markets might actually be on to something with all this bearishness standing in stark contrast to stock markets that just don’t care about much except self-feeding participation and corporate indulgence. There [...]

The True State of Recovery

By |2014-11-06T12:32:05-05:00November 6th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With all the election post-mortems flying about, there really only needs to be reference to pre-mortems that predicted such results. Even typically leftist media outlets have seen the “message” for what it was. From The DailyBeast: Yes, the stock market is booming but overwhelmingly Americans are unhappy with their economic situation—and for good reason. Wages are stagnant and middle-class household [...]

TNT Attrition

By |2014-09-24T15:41:29-04:00September 24th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was a bit of a stir caused by Dutch logistics firm, TNT Express. The company has been expressing caution, if not downright pessimism about its prospects due to economic considerations. Today, it lowered its targets for growth, with the stock taking a beating in so doing. However, it is the manner of that downgrade that should be seriously considered, [...]

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