t-bills

Let’s Talk Bills (again)

By |2021-01-29T18:04:12-05:00January 29th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are those people who will remain convinced forever forward that the Federal Reserve is run by evil geniuses absolutely intent upon robbing the free peoples of the United States of their financial freedom. As evidence, they point to one unsuccessful, controversial monetary policy after another, none of them effective at accomplishing their main task of putting the economic and [...]

TIC October: More Foreign Bills & More Private Corporates

By |2020-12-18T19:42:42-05:00December 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since we highlighted the action in T-bills yesterday and the day before, it’s worth at least mentioning what TIC had to say about the instruments. Foreigners had been reducing their holdings of them not out of growing distaste but rather the opposite. There’s not nearly as many of them, not enough for what’s demanded, the Treasury Department quite purposefully (and [...]

Possible Problem? Ask Bill

By |2020-12-17T19:36:24-05:00December 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It has happened more frequently the past few days. The difference between the equivalent yield for the 6-month (26-week) Treasury bill and its cousin with a 1-year (52-week) maturity has turned negative. You have to watch for it intraday, catching it flipping occasionally back and forth by fractions. After hours more than regular trading.Inversion, in other words. That dirty term [...]

Just Who Is, And Who Is Not, Selling T-Bills

By |2020-11-25T14:56:18-05:00November 25th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Are foreigners selling Treasury bills? If they are, this would seem to merit consideration for the reflation argument. After all, the paramount monetary deficiency exposed by March’s GFC2 (and the Fed’s blatant role in making it worse) was the dangerous degree of shortage over the best collateral. Best collateral means OTR, and for standard practice this had always meant Treasury [...]

Brief Summary Of Where Things Stand Getting Closer to Q4

By |2020-09-24T20:25:50-04:00September 24th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Flash PMI’s for September 2020 around the world add more evidence to the possibility of a global slowdown during the economy’s all-important rebound quarter. Q2 was the big downturn, and so it always going to be Q3 where the bounce back would be sharpest. While that has definitely been the case, concerns are mounting for what might follow in Q4. [...]

If Dollar Is Fixed By Jay’s Flood, Why So Many TIC-ked At Corporates in July?

By |2020-09-18T19:55:09-04:00September 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar system worked, or at least appeared to, not only did the overflow of real effective (if virtual and confusing) currency “weaken” the US dollar’s exchange value, its enormous excess showed up as more and more foreign holdings of US$ assets. Mostly US Treasuries, especially in official hands, but not entirely those. That much is perfectly clear; you [...]

COT Black: Closing In On Mid-September, What About Oil?

By |2020-09-08T17:59:49-04:00September 8th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil production fell below 10 mbpd during the final week of August 2020. Hurricane Laura had looped through the Gulf of Mexico, forcing the widespread shutting down of drilling and pumping activity throughout the offshore oil patch. It was the first time total American crude supply had dropped below that level [...]

Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?

By |2020-08-26T18:35:11-04:00August 26th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable. [...]

So Long As The Bucket Is Full of Holes, Treasury Demand Comes First

By |2020-07-13T16:40:50-04:00July 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Foreigners are dumping their Treasuries! The Fed is monetizing the debt! The federal government has gone insane! Mass fiscal hysteria!Yet, yields on these things are comfortably within sight of their record lows as prices have never been higher. Supply is very obviously off-the-charts, but so, too, must be demand. Every time we hear about “too many” Treasuries the market yet [...]

Three Quarters of a Trillion In Three Weeks, And Bill Yields Are Down Again

By |2020-04-16T18:48:03-04:00April 16th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Hold all the congratulations. Jay Powell is, with a huge assist from the financial media, trying to pre-empt what comes next by taking a premature victory lap. The Fed isn’t just your central bank it is your friend. The amount of pure propaganda being put out lately is understandable if still disgusting. March was a good month to include [...]

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