us treasuries

We Are Stuck In Depression Until The Legend Of The ‘Maestro’ Finally Dies

By |2016-09-23T11:38:31-04:00September 23rd, 2016|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Alan Greenspan is confused - again. The man who admitted to the world a decade ago he didn’t know much if anything about interest rates is now trying to change that reputation by suggesting yet again interest rates are set to rise. In testimony before Congress in February 2005, the then-Chairman of the Federal Reserve actually said: For the moment, [...]

What Will Result From Sideways?

By |2016-09-19T18:54:24-04:00September 19th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy of 2015 started out “unexpectedly” weak before succumbing to “global turmoil.” It was the events of last summer that began to sow serious doubts about not just the economic narrative seeking to dismiss weakness (“transitory”) but rather central banking and QE itself. The repeat in January/February further eroded mainstream credibility, particularly since only a few weeks before the [...]

More Evidence Of That ‘Something’ In ‘Dollars’

By |2016-09-19T16:39:47-04:00September 19th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The July update to the Treasury International Capital flows (TIC) was mostly the same as we have observed throughout this year. The private segment continues to buy on net while the official sector continues to sell on net. I think it fairly reasonable to conclude that the latter is purposefully designed so that the former can take place. In other [...]

More Bond Market Confusion

By |2016-09-12T17:32:57-04:00September 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury closed at around 1.68% today, but judging by the haughty commentary surrounding global bond markets you would be forgiven if you thought it was 2.68%. Since the low in July around 1.37%, that +30 bps apparently seems like it to many people. Going back to the end of QE2, the idea that rates [...]

Still Talking Collateral And Implying Shortage

By |2016-08-30T18:54:39-04:00August 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Repo fails in the past two weeks (the week of August 17 the most current figures) were both more than $192 billion. Though that level is highly elevated, those were actually the fewest fails since mid-June, and the fewest in consecutive weeks since early May. The 8-week average remains about $245 billion, a noticeable increase from even last year’s “dollar” [...]

SAFE Plus TIC Equals TED?

By |2016-08-15T20:00:48-04:00August 15th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported a slight decline, -$3.6 billion, in foreign “reserve” assets in July. That followed a $13 billion “inflow” in June, which was the largest since early last year, maintaining the same pattern that we have observed for some time. A positive month isn’t so much an “inflow” as very likely forward operations from [...]

Long Run Expectations After So Many Years Of Doubt

By |2016-08-11T18:34:45-04:00August 11th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Wednesday, October 8, 2008, the FOMC voted for an emergency 50 bps cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it down to 1.50%. The day prior, the Fed announced that it would be buying short-term debt from businesses after suggesting the day before that it would fund up to $300 billion for “bad” assets. The Friday before that, Congress [...]

What Is Truly Left of the ‘Recovery’

By |2016-07-28T17:04:42-04:00July 28th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Oil prices are like an unfolding train wreck, as it is nearly impossible to look away now.  Day after day, not only are spot prices down but the entire WTI curve is now moving lower in almost perfect unison.  Prices have dropped six days in a row, more than $4, and at just above $41 seems a much different world [...]

The Official Face of the ‘Rising Dollar’, Written Officially As Farce

By |2016-07-26T18:13:22-04:00July 26th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last July, the US Treasury Department finally issued its official report detailing its account of what happened on October 15, 2014. The statement was co-authored by staff at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FRBNY, the SEC, and CFTC, as if the government were going overboard trying to prove its word the end of the matter. As [...]

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