For one, eurodollar futures are “obliged” to take account of any threats from the FOMC even though, in the end, they might only be self-fulfilling. Because the Fed has very little actual ability to condition money markets, none of that is truly “real” but there remains the unknown and money dealing agents still seem reticent about any kind of (further) [...]
Written Tuesday Oct 27 Even though oil production inside the United States has declined over the summer, it’s as if oil supply is all that continues to matter. With oil prices down significantly today, as well as since mid-October, the incessant appeal of oil supply blooms yet further even though there is so much more than that to take into [...]
Written Monday Oct 26 If China and Europe provided any boost to mainline sentiment last week, everyone looks to Japan this week for perhaps disappointment, though there isn’t any good reason why. Perhaps as a fitting description of this current situation, one that I think appears more inevitable by the day and the week, the Bank of Japan apparently sits [...]
The further we get down the calendar away from China’s second biannual Golden Week the clearer the “dollar’s” influence on crude oil becomes, at least in the shorter maturities (and spot price). As usual, the “dollar” creates far more volatility at the front end than the back, where the longer maturities (recognizing more thinly traded months) tend toward economic considerations. [...]
In a world wrapped in an often impenetrable morass of complexity and numbing esoteric deceitfulness, sometimes it is worthwhile to marvel in fleeting passes of simplicity. We have been looking for an isolated glimpse or almost control group synthesis of the Asian “dollar.” I suggested a few weeks back that China’s weeklong national holiday might provide such an opportunity, with [...]
With Chinese trade figures for September threatening a further reset, it is worth noting (yet again) that “dollar” funding isn’t much changed in October. In fact, there are several additional references to resuming the downward slide. Gold has been steadily bid since the September payroll report on October 2, while the eurodollar futures curve behaves much as it did (almost [...]
Before embarking on the great unknown of Q4 2015, it makes sense to try to gain a little more clarity about Q3 2015. Specifically, the “dollar” run that blasted through China and opened the prospects for both an end to Fed/Yellen faithfulness and increasing uncertainty about the true nature of economy and finance globally began around July 6; a day [...]
While central banks would prefer to isolate oil prices as if in their own world with nothing at all to do with finance and economy more generally, it is oil prices that continue the disappointment connecting the “dollar” to the growing market (and therefore economic) wreck. Front month and spot crude prices had bounced around more favorably since the August [...]
It seems as if the PBOC is doing a whole lot and getting very little from it. That is actually expected at least to anyone not caught up in the cult of QE and the like, as that is the very nature of central banks dating back to the original at the Bank of England. Even though the focus has [...]
Setting aside wholesale financial reasons and implications, the crash now in the Brazilian real is not good for anyone. It is, obviously, a disaster for Brazilians but the utter implosion heading toward disintegration in the world’s seventh largest economy (and what once was third in terms of marginal expansion) is both a warning and reflection. The economy there isn’t going [...]
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