It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to [...]
It’s one of those things I wish I had more time to thoroughly investigate. What can these Germans possibly be thinking? While the ZEW sentiment indicator actually came back down a bit in July 2020 from its 2005-style perch in June, the ZEW for all of Europe actually went further upward. Either that means Christine Lagarde has been successful (at [...]
According to Germany’s ZEW, economic prospects for the intermediate future in that country (and for Europe, separate survey) haven’t been this positive since 2006. Back then you might remember the rip-roaring contributions of asset bubbles, and I don’t mean the stock market and valuations. A huge wave of credit expansion in pretty much every corner of the globe courtesy of [...]
They really do seem to love Jay Powell’s announcement effect, these Germans. Magic words, no relation to what’s actually done only what’s said. Confirming in every way what I wrote yesterday, the psychology of money-less monetary policy being acted out exactly according to the plan. Central bankers do, those trained by Economics schools respond in predictable fashion.Pavlov is in awe [...]
What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?My very first day on the job, [...]
Forward-looking data is starting to trickle in. Germany has been a main area of interest for us right from the beginning, and by beginning I mean Euro$ #4 rather than just COVID-19. What has happened to the German economy has ended up happening everywhere else, a true bellwether especially manufacturing and industry. The latest sentiment figures from ZEW as well [...]
Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like much, but in the context [...]
It’s not that they are different types, these are only differences in time and timing. As I wrote yesterday, the US economy is on the same spectrum following in behind Europe’s lengthy head start. American Industrial Production peaked a year later and only now has turned negative year-over-year, while European Industrial Production peaked way back at the end of 2017 [...]
Yesterday, Eurostat confirmed that German GDP in Q2 2019 had contracted. Also issuing benchmark revisions, the European government agency found that GDP growth had been slightly better than previously thought at the top of Reflation #3. The last two quarters of 2017 saw the biggest upward revisions. But if Europe’s “boom” really was a little closer to having been a [...]
What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly considered over the second half [...]
Stay In Touch